Open interest monitor – 23 September 2025 - Oracle (ORCL) deep dive

Data through market close 22 September 2025

This monitor scans US-listed equity and index options to identify where open interest (OI) clusters and how institutional activity shapes market sentiment. The focus is on the top 20 underlyings by total OI, with broader observations drawn from the top 100. Each edition also features a deep dive on a single name showing unusual flows, rising implied volatility, or proximity to a key event. This week’s focus is on Oracle (ticker ORCL:xcbf).

Stock-option deep dive: Oracle (ORCL:xnys) – call interest builds after breakout

Oracle has remained in focus among options traders following its recent surge and management reshuffle, including the appointment of two co-CEOs. The options market has responded with elevated implied volatility and increased positioning in October contracts. Below is a snapshot of open interest distribution for the 17 October 2025 expiry.

The chart shows where the largest concentrations of call (blue) and put (orange) positions currently sit. Several observations stand out:

Call open interest dominates between the 300 and 360 strike levels, with notable peaks around 330. This could reflect either bullish positioning or call-writing strategies by holders of the stock.

Put interest is lower and more dispersed, with key levels at 280 and 300, suggesting less demand for downside protection—at least for this expiry.

The overall put/call open interest ratio is 0.66, which means there are roughly two call contracts for every put contract open. That leans modestly bullish in sentiment, or at minimum, suggests limited hedging demand.

This positioning aligns with broader options data:

• Implied volatility for the 17 October expiry remains elevated above 55%, with an IV Rank near 80%, reflecting heightened uncertainty after Oracle’s recent move.
• The risk reversal—which compares the price of out-of-the-money calls to puts—has flipped in favor of calls. That’s unusual in single stocks and often seen during strong upside momentum or after large moves.
• Recent option flow data showed sizable call activity in the 320–330 range, alongside some put selling around the 300 level and protective hedges further out-of-the-money.

In short, the 330–360 zone may act as a resistance band where many call positions are already open, while support may emerge near 300–310—especially if selling pressure brings the stock closer to previously active put levels.

How to use this information – educational perspectives for different market views

With implied volatility still elevated and option prices reflecting increased uncertainty, some traders may explore premium-selling strategies that benefit from time decay and rich option premiums. Here are a few ways the current open interest landscape might be interpreted from different viewpoints:

• If the outlook is bullish: Some traders look at selling put options at strike levels where open interest is concentrated—such as 300 or 310. This is often done as part of a cash-secured put strategy, where the goal is to collect premium while potentially agreeing to buy the stock at a lower price if assigned. High implied volatility can enhance the premium received, but also increases the risk of assignment if the stock declines.
• If the outlook is neutral: When the expectation is for the stock to trade sideways, elevated call open interest between 330 and 360 may suggest that upside progress could slow. In such cases, defined-risk strategies like short call spreads in that zone are sometimes used to express a view that the stock will remain below key resistance. The goal is typically to benefit from time decay as expiration approaches.
• If the outlook is bearish: For those anticipating a pullback or consolidation below recent highs, the same 330–360 call-heavy area may be viewed as a zone where limited-risk bear call spreads could be set up to generate premium if the stock remains below that range. These are often used with risk limits in place to manage exposure.

These examples are provided for educational purposes only and are not investment advice. Open interest levels and implied volatility can be useful reference points, but outcomes depend on market conditions and individual risk tolerance. Always consider using defined-risk strategies and ensure a clear understanding of the potential risks and rewards before entering any options trade.

Top 20 open interest ranking

This table shows the 20 listed options with the highest total open interest, combining calls and puts. Open interest data reflects active outstanding contracts and offers insights into market liquidity, sentiment, and positioning.

What the columns mean (short version):

What traders can take away

Looking beyond the top 20, a few underlyings stood out for their sharp increase in open interest. Discovery (WBD), Oracle (ORCL), and Wolfspeed (WOLF) all posted 1-month OI gains of over 50%, pointing to fresh institutional activity. JD.com (JD) and Lyft (LYFT) also saw large increases, suggesting growing trader engagement in Chinese tech and ride-hailing names.

On the volatility front, Wolfspeed leads the pack with an IV Rank near 90%, implying that options traders are pricing in major potential swings. Other names like Barnes Group (B) and Kenvue (KVUE) also show elevated implied volatility, potentially tied to earnings or narrative catalysts.

Finally, put/call volume ratios reveal where market participants may be positioning defensively. The semiconductor ETF SMH saw a P/C ratio near 6.7, indicating strong demand for protective puts. ARKK and XLF also showed elevated ratios, hinting at downside hedging in both innovation and financial sectors. On the flip side, names like Grab (GRAB), Hertz (HTZ), and Core Scientific (CORZ) saw extremely low P/C ratios—suggesting either speculative call buying or lack of hedging interest.

A few observations

Several names in the broader top-100 cohort showed unusually low implied volatility rankings. Vale (VALE), GameStop (GME), and MicroStrategy (MSTR) all had IV Ranks below 5%, signaling that options are pricing in little movement despite each ticker’s history of volatility. This could present an opportunity for traders expecting surprises—or a sign of fading narratives.

In contrast, the elevated put/call volume ratios in SMH, ARKK, and XLF suggest that investors are actively positioning for downside in semiconductors, disruptive tech, and financials. This could reflect broader macro caution, especially given the Fed’s shifting tone and ongoing geopolitical concerns.

Lastly, the top 20 list continues to show a healthy mix of macro and stock-specific interest. With eight ETFs and index products represented, traders are still positioning around broader market themes. But with 12 single-name equities also featured, there's plenty of targeted activity in key sectors like semis, electric vehicles, and metals.

Glossary

• Ticker: the exchange-listed symbol for the underlying stock, ETF, or index. Indices are noted with a $ prefix in general use, but we map them to specific exchange codes in the ticker string.
• Name: the company or ETF name associated with the ticker. ETFs typically describe their focus, such as “S&P 500” or “20+ Year Treasury Bonds.”
• Last: The last traded price of the underlying asset (stock, ETF, or index). This gives a reference point for where the asset currently trades and helps identify how close it is to key strike levels in the option chain.
• IV Rank (%): Implied Volatility Rank (IV Rank) shows where current implied volatility sits relative to the past 12 months. A reading of 0% means IV is at its lowest point of the year; 100% means it's at the highest. Higher IV Rank suggests options are more expensive compared to recent history, which may favour premium-selling strategies.
• Total Open Interest (Total OI): This is the total number of open option contracts across both calls and puts for the underlying. It represents outstanding positions that have not yet been closed or exercised. High OI is often associated with deep liquidity and significant institutional interest.
• 1M OI % Change: Shows how much total open interest has changed over the past month. A rising figure can point to fresh positioning or increased speculation, while a falling number may indicate closed-out trades or reduced interest in the underlying.
• Options Volume: The number of option contracts traded during the most recent session. High volume relative to open interest may suggest new trades are being initiated. Sudden spikes often coincide with market-moving news or upcoming events.
• Put/Call Volume Ratio (P/C Vol): This ratio compares the volume of puts traded to calls on the same day. A ratio above 1.0 implies more puts were traded (often for downside protection), while a value below 1.0 shows call-heavy flow (often speculative or bullish). Extreme readings can highlight skewed sentiment or potential contrarian signals.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

The Agonies of a short seller. Ran across this hilarious X post on the pitfalls of trading in this day and age as a short-seller. A hilarious rejoinder from another market pro Kuppy bemoaning similar. Dark humor at its best.

Russell Napier Q&A on FTAlphaville - some of the best stuff here related to the unsustainability of France’s debt and the policy mix that awaits should pressure ever be brought to bear on French sovereign bonds. But even more so - there are some investment ideas that one can infer directly from this article due to the new geopolitical reality: what sectors and companies can become growth companies when Chinese competition is disrupted with tariffs?

Velina Tchakarova is a good follow on X, and passed along this post on the unbelievable generosity of French pensions - it pays more to be old in France than anywhere else, more than being in the work force, it seems. The chart she passes along, for you FT subscribers is from this excellent article, with another one describing how France got into its untenable debt situation.

A stub summary of Tesla-booster Dan Ives note on Tesla and why it may become a USD 2 Trillion company in the next 12-18 months (that puts its share price near 600 - but the target is 500? Weird math. I will not participate….

FT article pointing out that rare earths can be processed from existing piles of mine waste - with plenty of geopolitical incentives now afoot to mobilize investment in these “new” sources of supply. One man’s trash is another one’s treasure indeed.

Chart of the Day - Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla is on the rise again, seemingly on a new hype cycle linked to hopes for their autonomous driving efforts and the “physical AI” future of Optimus robots. Is this upside melt-up a sign that speculative energies are set to boost the broader market or merely a distracting sideshow? It’s hard to be tactically bearish on the market until/unless moves like this rapidly reverse. In pre-market, it is up over 4% more, probably on the Dan Ives note discussed above.

Questions and comments, please!

Key takeaways

• Q2 profit fell on discounts; revenue still grew double-digit
• China’s price war vs firmer overseas pricing drives the mix
• EU duties and Europe build-out shape margins and pace

Post-print reaction: what moved and why

BYD is China’s largest maker of new-energy vehicles (electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids). It builds much of the stack in-house—batteries, motors, power electronics—which lowers cost and supports scale. That scale powered unit growth, but this quarter it met a harsher force: a domestic price war. The quarter paired solid revenue with weaker profit. Q2 revenue rose 14% to RMB 200.9 billion, while net profit fell 30% to RMB 6.36 billion as discounts and dealer support compressed margins. Management slowed capacity additions to match demand, and the 2025 sales target looks stretched—2.49 million vehicles year to date is 45% of plan. That mix of resilient volumes, thinner margins, and a tempered build-out—set up a two-step market reaction. On 29 August 2025, the shares closed at HKD 114.40, up 2.14%. The first take was relief: revenue held, overseas mix helped, and management signalled discipline on capacity. By the next session, the tone flipped. On 1 September, the stock closed at HKD 108.40, down 5.24%. Investors focused on what matters for earnings power—pricing and promotions. The message was that domestic discounts bite harder and longer than hoped, dealer support is costly, and export strength cannot yet offset home-market pressure. In short, the market rewarded evidence of scale, then re-priced the cost of holding share in a price war. The read of the tape is straightforward: margins drive the next leg. If discount intensity eases and incentives fade, sentiment improves. If pricing pressure persists into Q4, expect the debate to stay on profitability rather than units.

China vs the West: two EV realities

 

China optimises for scale. Carmakers run short model cycles, reuse one platform across many models and equipment levels, and source key parts in-house—especially batteries. Dense supplier clusters cut logistics time and cost. The result is lower unit costs and rapid feature rollouts. It also breeds fierce competition. When demand wobbles, price becomes the lever, and margins take the hit. Western markets face higher labour and compliance costs, longer model cycles, and less vertical integration. That raises sticker prices but supports steadier margins. Consumers skew to larger vehicles and premium brands, so price wars are rarer and narrower. Dealer networks and financing standards also slow sudden moves on price, keeping resale values more stable.

Policy is a key lever. China uses industrial plans, local subsidies, and charging build-outs to drive volume. Europe and the US counter with tariffs, local-content rules, and credits to pull production onshore. Higher EU duties on China-built battery electric vehicles (BEVs) push manufacturers toward local assembly, lengthening timelines but improving political and logistics fit. In response, BYD’s Hungary plant targets mass output in 2026. Mix and technology differ too. China’s buyers embrace affordable small electric cars and hybrids (PHEVs), which suit urban charging and price sensitivity. Western buyers lean premium, crossovers, and long-range BEVs. Software stacks diverge as well—China’s fast iteration vs stricter Western privacy and safety regimes. Net-net: China’s model delivers volume and speed; the West’s delivers price discipline and durability.

BYD’s positioning: scale on a shifting board

Investor playbook

• Track monthly new energy vehicles sales and discount intensity vs peers.
• Map Europe catalysts: tariff pass-through, Hungary plant milestones, and model launches.
• Stress-test margins under three pricing paths; exports and PHEV mix are the safety valves.
• Size positions for volatility; price wars are noisy and policy-sensitive.

Path ahead

BYD’s latest print spotlights the EV trade-off: scale wins units, pricing sets profit. Two drivers matter near term. First, how fast domestic discounting cools without ceding share. Second, how quickly exports and Europe can lift mix despite duties and a measured plant ramp. Risks centre on a longer price war at home and slower-than-planned Europe execution. 

China still rewards speed; the West rewards staying power. BYD sits between those poles, using integration to defend share while tilting mix toward exports, PHEVs, and—over time—local European builds. The question is no longer capacity—it’s control. Can management cool promotions without ceding the lane and turn scale into durable cash. Do that and the valuation debate tilts toward compounding. Miss it and the market will keep pricing a race to the bottom. From here, execution—not headlines—drive returns.