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US Customs and Border Protection says the first electronic refunds from tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court will begin as early as May 12, with up to $166bn in collected duties subject to repayment.

Summary:

• US Customs and Border Protection said on Monday that the first electronic refunds from tariffs ruled illegal by the Supreme Court will begin as early as May 12, one day later than a prior estimate, per the CBP announcement
• The revised start date for Automated Clearing House payments was disclosed in a message to shippers that also announced the availability of status reports allowing claimants to track refund processing, according to the CBP
• A Court of International Trade order last week had indicated refunds would begin around May 11, with no explanation given for the one-day delay, per the report
• Up to $166 billion in CBP collections derived from tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are subject to repayment following the Supreme Court ruling, according to the report
• The Supreme Court ruled that President Trump exceeded his authority in using the 1977 IEEPA sanctions law as the legal basis for imposing the tariffs, per the ruling

The United States is preparing to begin repaying up to $166 billion in tariff receipts after the Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his legal authority in imposing them, with Customs and Border Protection confirming the first electronic refunds will flow as early as May 12.

CBP announced the revised start date in a communication to shippers that also introduced status reporting tools allowing claimants to monitor where their refund stands in the processing queue. The one-day slip from an earlier May 11 estimate, set out in a Court of International Trade order last week, was offered without explanation.

The tariffs in question were levied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 law designed as a sanctions mechanism that the Trump administration repurposed as the legal foundation for sweeping import duties. The Supreme Court determined that using IEEPA in that way exceeded presidential authority, invalidating the collections and triggering the repayment obligation now working its way through CBP's systems.

The ruling carries consequences well beyond the refund mechanics. IEEPA had become a central instrument of Trump's trade policy, and its judicial invalidation removes one of the administration's most flexible tools for applying tariff pressure without congressional approval. The $166 billion figure represents the cumulative collections subject to challenge, making this one of the largest forced fiscal reversals in recent US trade history.

For businesses that paid the duties, the refunds arrive after months of margin pressure and supply chain adjustment undertaken on the assumption that the tariffs were a permanent feature of the trading environment. The May 12 start date marks the beginning of what is likely to be a lengthy disbursement process given the volume of claims involved.

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A $166 billion refund pipeline flowing back to importers represents a meaningful, if one-off, liquidity injection into the US corporate sector, with the largest beneficiaries likely to be high-volume goods importers in retail, electronics and manufacturing. The scale of the refunds also underscores the fiscal cost of the Supreme Court's ruling for the US government, removing a significant revenue stream that had been factored into near-term budget projections. For trade policy, the ruling and its financial consequences narrow the administration's room to use IEEPA as a tariff mechanism going forward, potentially shifting leverage in ongoing trade negotiations. Currency and bond markets will be watching whether the refund disbursements affect Treasury issuance planning in the weeks ahead.

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The North American session leaned firmly toward a risk-on tone, with equities pushing higher, oil easing, and yields drifting modestly lower. The backdrop for the move was driven largely by renewed diplomatic momentum, as talks between the U.S. and Iran appear to be gaining traction- with Pakistan playing a central role. While headlines throughout the day were at times inconsistent and even contradictory, the broader narrative pointed toward re-engagement rather than escalation.

U.S. envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner are reportedly en route, while Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is also expected to be in the region. Current indications suggest that all parties may first meet separately with Pakistani officials, with the possibility of more direct engagement emerging as late as Monday. Markets are clearly choosing to focus on the potential for de-escalation, and that optimism helped extend the rally in U.S. equities.

That optimism translated into record-setting performance on Wall Street. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at all-time highs, with the S&P rising 0.80% and the NASDAQ surging 1.63%. Leadership once again came from mega-cap tech, with Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon all finishing at record levels. Meanwhile, Intel stole the spotlight with a staggering gain of over 23%. The turnaround in Intel highlights just how quickly sentiment can shift—what was recently an avoided name is now being embraced, even at elevated valuations near an 80x forward P/E. It’s a reminder that markets don’t wait for perfection—they anticipate it. It is either that, or the markets are inefficient and subject wild irrational moves at times.

Looking ahead, earnings will take center stage next week and could inject fresh volatility. Wednesday features reports from Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft—a heavyweight lineup that will test the sustainability of the current rally. On Thursday, Apple, Caterpillar, and Merck follow, adding further depth across both tech and industrial sectors.

In the fixed income space, yields edged lower but remain within recent ranges. The 2-year yield declined by 4 basis points to 3.784%, while the 10-year yield slipped 1.7 basis points to 4.305%. Despite today’s dip, yields still moved higher on the week, with the 10-year up 5 basis points and the 2-year rising 7.9 basis points. Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve, with the FOMC set to meet next Wednesday. Expectations are firmly anchored for no change in rates, with the current target range centered around 3.75%. The focus will instead be on guidance and tone, particularly as markets weigh geopolitical risks against easing inflation pressures.

In the FX market, the U.S. dollar weakened as traders leaned into the improving risk backdrop and the prospect of reduced geopolitical tension. Lower oil prices and expectations of softer inflation down the road also contributed to the move. Commodity and growth-sensitive currencies led the gains, with the NZD and GBP each rising around 0.50%. The EUR advanced 0.32%, while the AUD gained 0.34%, reflecting a broader shift away from defensive positioning.

Oil prices told a slightly more nuanced story. WTI crude for June delivery fell 0.87% to $95, while July crude dropped 0.74% to $90.15, reflecting optimism around supply stability if tensions ease. However, Brent crude painted a more cautious picture, rising $1.11 (1.08%) to $106.20—suggesting that not all market participants are fully convinced that risks have been removed.

Bottom line: Markets are leaning into a more optimistic geopolitical narrative, driving equities to record highs and pressuring the dollar. However, with major earnings, a Fed decision, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty ahead, the current calm may prove fragile.

Bitcoincash: ⬆️ Buy – Bitcoincash broke daily Triangle – Likely to rise to resistance level 480.00 Bitcoincash cryptocurrency today broke the resistance zone between the resistance level 459.40, resistance trendline of the daily Triangle from February and the 50% Fibonacci.

March proved to be one of the weakest months for the German index in recent years, though conditions stabilised by mid-April.