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Adobe raises full-year forecast, but investor interest remains subdued

Posted on: Jun 19 2025

Neither Adobe’s strong Q2 2025 performance nor its improved full-year forecast has managed to halt the decline in its share price. If investor pressure intensifies, ADBE could fall as low as 200 USD.

Adobe delivered solid results for Q2 of its 2025 financial year, reporting record revenue of 5.87 billion USD (up 11% year-on-year) and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 5.06 USD (up 13%) – both exceeding analysts’ expectations. The company has raised its full-year outlook, now projecting revenue of 23.5-23.6 billion USD and EPS in the range of 20.50-20.70 USD. This upgrade is underpinned by continued strength in the Digital Media and Digital Experience segments. Adobe also highlighted sustained momentum in AI-driven innovation – particularly across Firefly, Acrobat AI, and GenStudio – which is contributing to increased product adoption and annual recurring revenue.

Despite a strong quarter and an upward revision to its guidance, Adobe shares fell by around 5%, as investors remain cautious over the pace of AI monetisation and intensifying competition from Canva, OpenAI, and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG). Overall, while the financial results and AI progress were well received, investors expressed concern over the limited number of short-term catalysts and the extended timeline required for significant AI-driven revenue.

This article reviews Adobe Inc., outlines the company’s revenue sources, summarises its Q2 2025 financial performance and presents expectations for the remainder of the 2025 financial year. It also includes a technical analysis of ADBE shares and offers Adobe’s price outlook for the 2025 calendar year.

About Adobe Inc.

Adobe was founded in December 1982 by John Warnock and Charles Geschke. The company specialises in software for businesses and individual users through the Adobe Acrobat, Illustrator, Photoshop, and Premiere Pro applications. It also provides digital marketing and document management solutions through the Creative Cloud and Experience Cloud platforms. The company went public on 20 August 1986, listing its shares on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ABDE.

Image of the company name Adobe Inc.

Adobe Inc.’s main revenue streams

Adobe’s revenue comes from the following sources:

  • Digital Media: products and solutions that help create, edit, and distribute digital content. This segment enables users to work with graphics, video, animation, web design, and other digital media. It forms the core of Adobe’s business
  • Digital Experience: business solutions that improve client interaction through digital channels. This includes Adobe Experience Cloud, which offers analytics, marketing campaign management, content personalisation, and client experience optimisation tools. It helps businesses analyse data, automate marketing processes, and create a seamless user experience across websites, apps, and other platforms

Since the Q1 of fiscal year 2025, Adobe has begun providing information on subscription revenue by creating two groups:

  1. Business Professionals and Consumers Group: this group includes revenues from Acrobat, Adobe Express, and Document Cloud subscriptions.
  2. Creative and Marketing Professionals Group: includes revenues from Digital Experience subscriptions and all other Creative Cloud subscriptions.

Adobe Inc. Q1 FY 2025 report

On 12 March, Adobe Inc. released its Q1 fiscal 2025 report for the period ending on 28 February 2025. Below are its highlights:

  • Revenue: 5.71 billion USD (+10%)
  • Net income: 2.22 billion USD (+8%)
  • Earnings per share: 5.08 USD (+13%)
  • Operating income: 2.71 billion USD (+10%)

Revenue by segment:

  • Digital Media: 4.23 billion USD (+11%)
  • Digital Experience: 1.41 billion USD (+10%)
  • Business Professionals and Consumers Group: 1.53 billion USD (+15%)
  • Creative and Marketing Professionals Group: 3.92 billion USD (+10%)

Commenting on its record Q1 FY 2025 revenue, Adobe’s management emphasised the significant role of AI-based innovation. CEO Shantanu Narayen stated that Adobe’s AI achievements drive creative economic growth. In particular, he noted that AI-focused products (Acrobat AI Assistant, Firefly App, and GenStudio) generated over 125.00 million USD in revenue, which is expected to double by the end of the fiscal year 2025.

As part of its Q2 fiscal 2025 financial targets, Adobe expects total revenue to be between 5.77 and 5.82 billion USD and EPS between 4.95 and 5.00 USD. The company also anticipates an operating margin of approximately 45%. In the Digital Media segment, Adobe expects revenue of 4.27-4.30 billion USD. Overall, these forecasts align with analysts’ expectations. However, following their release, the company’s stock fell by over 14% as investors voiced concerns about the pace of monetising Adobe’s AI initiatives.

Adobe Inc. Q2 FY 2025 report

  • Revenue: 5.87 billion USD (+10%)
  • Net income: 2.17 billion USD (+8%)
  • Earnings per share (EPS): 5.06 USD (+13%)
  • Operating profit: 2.67 billion USD (+10%)

Revenue by segment:

  • Digital Media: 4.35 billion USD (+11%)
  • Digital Experience: 1.46 billion USD (+10%)
  • Business Professionals and Consumers Group: 1.60 billion USD (+15%)
  • Creative and Marketing Professionals Group: 4.02 billion USD (+10%)

Adobe reported a strong performance in Q2 fiscal 2025, with revenue reaching 5.87 billion USD, up 11% year-on-year. Growth was primarily driven by sustained demand for Creative Cloud products and steady performance in the Digital Experience segment.

Artificial intelligence remains a key growth driver, with Firefly (image and video generation), Acrobat AI Assistant, Adobe Express and GenStudio contributing to increased user engagement. Adobe announced that it expects to generate more than 250 million USD in annual revenue from AI products by year-end, highlighting that AI is no longer just a trend but a commercially viable tool.

Management raised its full-year 2025 guidance, now forecasting revenue of 23.50-23.60 billion USD and EPS of 20.50-20.70 USD, both above previous estimates. For Q3 FY2025, Adobe projects non-GAAP EPS of 5.15-5.20 USD and revenue of 5.87-5.92 billion USD, also ahead of analysts’ consensus forecasts. The operating margin is expected to be around 45.5%.

The company’s cash flows remain strong, with an operating cash flow of 2.19 billion USD and 3.5 billion USD allocated to share buybacks. A further 10.9 billion USD remains in repurchase reserves, supporting shareholder value.

However, shares remain under pressure as investors become cautious over the intensifying competition in AI-based solutions from players such as Canva, OpenAI, and Alphabet Inc. The market is also awaiting firm evidence that AI integration will lead to sustained margin expansion rather than remain a buzzword.

Adobe is beginning to demonstrate that AI is not just a strategic initiative but an already operational commercial engine. The improved outlook for the next quarter reflects management’s confidence in the resilience of this trend. If Adobe continues to integrate AI into its products, raise prices effectively and convert users to paid subscriptions, FY2025 could mark a turning point, laying the groundwork for a revaluation of its shares. The coming quarters will determine the solidity of this new growth trajectory.

Expert forecasts for Adobe Inc.’s stock

  • Barchart: 21 out of 33 analysts rated Adobe stock as a Strong Buy, two as a Moderate Buy, nine as a Hold, and one as a Moderate Sell. The highest target price is 600 USD, while the lowest is 380 USD
  • MarketBeat: 17 out of 26 analysts assigned a Buy rating to the shares, while nine gave a Hold recommendation. The highest target price is 645 USD
  • TipRanks: 19 out of 27 respondents gave a Buy rating to the stock, and eight recommended it as a Hold. The highest target price is 660 USD
  • Stock Analysis: out of 22 experts, four rated the shares as a Strong Buy, 12 as a Buy, and six as a Hold. The highest price target is 600 USD
Expert forecasts for Adobe Inc. stock for 2025

Adobe Inc. stock price forecast for 2025

On a weekly timeframe, Adobe stock is trading within a descending channel. The stronger-than-expected report failed to support ADBE shares, with the price edging lower. However, the upbeat outlook for fiscal 2025 could reverse the current trend. Based on the current Adobe stock performance, potential price movements in 2025 are as follows:

The optimistic forecast for Adobe stock suggests a breakout above the 450 USD resistance level, driving the ADBE stock price higher towards the trendline near 550 USD. A breakout above this level would open the door for an upward move to the next resistance level at 635 USD.

The alternative forecast for Adobe shares predicts continued decline and a potential breakout below the 335 USD support level. This scenario increases the risk of a sharp price drop to the channel’s lower boundary at 200 USD, from which a new growth wave could emerge.

Adobe Inc. stock analysis and forecast for 2025

Risks of investing in Adobe Inc. stock

Investing in Adobe stock involves several risks that may negatively impact the company’s profitability, revenue, and investor returns:

  • Macroeconomic factors: Adobe’s performance is influenced by the broader global economy. Economic downturns and geopolitical events may adversely affect the company’s financial position
  • Competitive environment: the emergence of new competitors, including affordable AI models from startups such as DeepSeek, threatens Adobe’s market share. Intensified competition may exert pricing pressure and reduce profitability
  • Market volatility: Adobe’s financial performance is subject to market fluctuations and other macroeconomic factors. Investors should consider portfolio diversification to mitigate the risks associated with investing in the company’s shares
When markets get messy, what kind of portfolio wins?

Posted on: Jun 18 2025

Key points:

  • Diversification delivered outperformance and stability: We built two portfolios to study how different strategies hold up in volatile markets. The concentrated portfolio lagged with sharp drawdowns, while the diversified one delivered steadier, positive returns through a turbulent first half.
  • Concentration amplified downside risk: Betting on a few tech names led to sharp losses and high volatility, resulting in emotional and financial strain when chasing conviction alone.
  • Diversification helped manage risk and stay invested: Balanced exposure across asset classes and regions led to better risk-adjusted returns — proving that resilience is just as important as performance.

Note: This content is marketing material.

The first half of 2025 has been a stress test for investors.

Between Trump’s tariff threats, escalating geopolitical tensions, and conflicting signals from the Fed, markets have been anything but calm.

To understand how portfolio construction affects outcomes in such an environment, we built two sample portfolios — each starting with $10,000 on December 31, 2024 — but with vastly different strategies.

Portfolio A – The concentrated growth play

Portfolio A mirrored a common high-conviction strategy seen in recent years:

  • 8 shares each of Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla bought on December 31, 2024
  • ~$1,000 in cash reserves

This allocation was tilted toward megacap growth stocks, all of which had benefited from the AI boom and tech momentum of 2023–2024. But in 2025, the narrative shifted. Tariff risks, valuation pressures, and sector rotations made this concentrated bet vulnerable — and painful.

Portfolio B – The diversified core

In contrast, Portfolio B reflected a globally diversified strategy built for all-weather conditions:

  • U.S. equities (SPX), international equities (IUSQ, IUIT)
  • Fixed income (AGGG), gold miners (GDX) and Consumer staples (WCOS)
  • ~$800 in cash for dry powder

Instead of betting on one trend, this portfolio spread risk across sectors, geographies, and asset classes. The result? More stability, lower drawdowns, and a smoother ride when volatility hit.

What happened next: January to May 2025

From January to May, macro conditions turned increasingly fragile. Markets were whipsawed by:

  • Tariffs went on and off, with Trump’s Liberation Day announcement followed by a pause — spurring volatility in trade-sensitive sectors.
  • Trump’s new tax bill raised concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability.
  • Policy uncertainty in the U.S. resulting in fading of the American exceptionalism.
  • Uncertainty over Fed rate cuts, as inflation data proved stickier than expected.
  • Escalating tensions in the Middle East, pushing up energy and gold prices.
  • Fed independence came under question, adding another layer of policy risk.

In this climate, Portfolio A suffered significantly sharper drawdowns, while Portfolio B weathered the storm with far greater stability.

Performance comparison (Dec 31, 2024 – June 16, 2025)

Source: Bloomberg Portfolio Analytics (PRTU)

Let us understand what these metrics tells us:

  • Total Return: This is how much your portfolio grew or shrank over the period. The diversified portfolio ended up with gains, and outperformed the concentrated one — reminding us that consistency can beat occasional big wins.
  • Max Drawdown: This shows the biggest temporary dip your portfolio experienced. While both recovered, the concentrated portfolio had a much deeper fall — which can test an investor’s confidence.
  • Standard Deviation: A measure of how much your portfolio value moves up and down. High volatility means bigger swings, which can be stressful. The diversified portfolio offered a calmer ride.
  • VaR (95%): This estimates how much you could lose on a really bad day. It doesn’t mean it will happen — but it helps compare how much risk each portfolio carries.
  • Sharpe Ratio: This tells you how well the portfolio rewarded you for the risk taken. A higher number means more efficient growth — and the diversified portfolio delivered just that.

Key lessons

Diversification protects against tail risks

Portfolio A delivered big upside during short rallies but couldn’t protect against volatility. Portfolio B’s broader exposure to defensives, bonds, and gold insulated it from the brunt of equity drawdowns — even as risk assets wobbled on macro news.

Volatility is more than just a number

While Portfolio A saw strong upside in brief tech rallies, the day-to-day swings were larger — emotionally and mathematically. Higher standard deviation and VaR translated into a bumpier journey that made staying invested more difficult.

Risk-adjusted returns matter more than raw returns

While headlines often focus on performance, return alone doesn’t reflect portfolio quality. Portfolio B delivered a higher Sharpe ratio, meaning investors got more return for every unit of risk taken.

Strategy takeaway: Build for what you can’t see coming

Volatility is no longer an outlier event — it’s the base case.

Tariffs, geopolitics, elections, inflation, AI regulation — all are part of a more fractured, fast-moving macro backdrop. And in this world, the old playbook of concentrated tech bets is less reliable.

Instead, investors need strategies that diversify across geographies, sectors, and risk factors. That means:

  • Blending growth with income
  • Hedging with commodities or bonds
  • Including exposure to international markets
  • Keeping some dry powder in cash
Charu ChananaChief Investment StrategistSaxo Markets
Topics: Equities Technology Macro Elections US Election Gold Bonds Bonds Government Bonds Commodities
Brent crude briefly breaches $70 amid Iran attack threats

Posted on: Jun 13 2025

This content is marketing material

Key points:

  • Crude oil markets remain caught in a tug-of-war between bullish short-term and bearish medium-term developments.
  • The latest surge saw Brent briefly trade above USD 70 and was triggered by Iranian threats to strike American bases in the Middle East.
  • Overall, we believe a price above USD 70 Brent is unlikely to be sustained into the autumn months once we go past the peak summer demand season.
  • However, with a renewed risk of a Middle East disruption hanging over the market, fundamental driven short-selling appetite is likely to remain muted for now.

Crude oil markets remain caught in a tug-of-war between bullish near-term demand and rising geopolitical risks on one hand, and macroeconomic headwinds and rising OPEC+ production on the other. In the last hours, Brent crude briefly traded above USD 70 and touched highs last seen in April before drifting lower, as traders continue to digest a mix of conflicting drivers.

On the bullish side, seasonal summer demand continues to tighten supplies. With peak travel and air conditioning usage underway, refiners are scrambling to meet surging gasoline and diesel demand, supporting near-term pricing. In their weekly crude and fuel stock report, the US Energy Information Administration reported a bigger-than-expected drop in crude oil inventories, not least due to refineries nationwide processing the most crude since December 2019 in order to meet summer demand

However, this short-term tightness is increasingly expected to be offset by rising OPEC+ output into the autumn months, as a group of eight OPEC+ members aggressively restores production in an effort to reclaim market share, and a so far unsuccessful attempt to penalise above-quota producers amid current price strength. The added barrels should, over time, temper price gains while raising concerns about a potential oversupply if demand growth stalls.

Source: Bloomberg - Crude oil forward price curves show current market tightness amid peak summer demand being followed by loosening conditions toward year-end, driven by OPEC+ production hikes

Further complicating the picture are economic uncertainties tied to current global trade tensions. The latest wave of tariff threats, despite the prospect of a trade truce reset between the US and China, has rekindled fears of slower global growth, which could weigh on long-term oil demand expectations. In addition, President Trump told journalists that the US, within weeks, will be sending letters to its trading partners in which they will set their terms.

Geopolitics, as always, remains a key wildcard that in recent years has rocked prices on several occasions, especially when we are dealing with developments that may disrupt the safe passage and distribution of crude oil and fuel products. The latest surge in Brent above a recent level of resistance around USD 68.50 was triggered by Iranian threats to strike American bases in the Middle East if the nuclear talks collapse and the country is attacked.

 

Brent crude oil futures, first month cont. - Source: SaxoTraderGO

The US ordered some staff to depart its embassy in Baghdad due to heightened security risks, while the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) issued a rare warning to mariners that higher tensions could affect shipping, including the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint that sees more than 20 million barrels of crude pass through daily. Even a brief disruption there could trigger a sharp price spike, with some analysts warning of a potential move toward USD 100 per barrel in a worst-case scenario. 

Israel/Iran conflict remains a volatile undercurrent in the oil market

In addition, the risk of a full-blown war between Israel and Iran remains a persistent and increasingly volatile undercurrent in the oil market. While not an immediate base-case scenario, it is a geopolitical risk the market cannot afford to fully discount. Tensions have steadily escalated over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and Israel along with the U.S. have long maintained that they will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon—a red line that may drive Israel toward unilateral military action if diplomacy fails.

This risk is further amplified by Israel’s current political climate, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government faces growing domestic pressure and may see a decisive foreign policy move—such as a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities—as a way to shift the political narrative or consolidate support. On the other side, Iran has vowed to retaliate forcefully if its nuclear infrastructure is attacked, potentially targeting US or Israeli assets directly or through its regional proxy networks.

As markets continue to navigate this web of opposing pressures, volatility remains elevated, and traders will be closely watching diplomatic developments, demand signals, and the next steps from OPEC+ for clearer direction. Overall, its our opinion that a price above USD 70 Brent is unlikely to be sustained into the autumn months once we go past the peak summer demand season, and OPEC+ production increases are being felt, however with the risk of a Middle East disruption once again hanging over the market, fundamental driven short-selling appetite is likely to remain muted for now.

Key takeaways from weekly EIA report

EIA's weekly update showed a surprise 3.64 million barrels reduction in crude stockpiles, while gasoline and distillate stocks both rose with refineries processing the most crude since December 2019 to meet summer demand, leading to a drop in exports to an April low at 3.3 million barrels per day. Some concerns about demand arose after implied gasoline demand on a four-week averaged basis stayed at a five-year seasonal low, while distillates, like diesel demand (apart from 2020) fell to an all-time seasonal low.
From EIA's weekly crude and fuel stock report
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Ole HansenHead of Commodity StrategySaxo Bank
Topics: Commodities Inflation Federal Reserve ETF Trump Version 2 - Traders Crude Oil Gas Oil Heating Oil Oil and Gas Oil OPEC China USA
World indices overview: news from US 30, US 500, US Tech, JP 225, and DE 40 for 5 June 2025

Posted on: Jun 06 2025

The US administration increased tariffs on steel and aluminium from 25% to 50%. At the same time, investment in AI reached record highs. Find out more in our analysis and forecast for 5 June 2025.

US indices forecast: US 30, US 500, US Tech

  • Recent data: the S&P US composite PMI came out at 53 in May
  • Market impact: rising PMI may indicate stable economic growth, supporting corporate profits

Fundamental analysis

Robust S&P composite PMI data could reinforce the view that the Federal Reserve will not rush to cut rates, which may restrain stock growth in the short term, especially in rate-sensitive tech stocks. As the economy recovers, industrials, financials, and energy shares could gain.

With AI sector expansion and technology adoption, spending on computer equipment in Q1 2025 made the largest-ever contribution to US GDP on record. The decision to increase tariffs on steel and aluminium also boosted metals sector stocks.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index broke above the 42,590.0 resistance level, with the support line shifting to 41,810.0. The US 30 outlook remains unstable, marking the third directional shift. Despite technical signs of an emerging uptrend, the likelihood of moving into a sideways consolidation phase remains high.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 30 price forecast:

  • Pessimistic US 30 forecast: a breakout below the 41,810.0 support level could push the index to 40,215.0
  • Optimistic US 30 forecast: a breakout above the 42,590.0 resistance level could drive the index to 43,890.0
US 30 technical analysis

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index continues to rise, with the support level shifting to 5,845.0 and resistance at 5,985.0. The price is attempting to break above the current resistance level.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:

  • Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 5,845.0 support level could send the index down to 5,585.0
  • Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 5,985.0 resistance level could propel the index to 6,085.0
US 500 technical analysis

US Tech technical analysis

The US Tech index broke above the 21,435.0 resistance level, with a new one yet to form. The support level has shifted to 21,020.0, while the resistance line is located at 21,435.0. If prices consolidate above this level, a stable medium-term uptrend will likely form.

The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:

  • Pessimistic US Tech forecast: a breakout below the 21,020.0 support level could push the index down to 20,250.0
  • Optimistic US Tech forecast: if the price consolidates above the previously breached resistance level at 21,435.0, the index could climb to 22,230.0
US Tech technical analysis

Asian index forecast: JP 225

  • Recent data: au Jibun Bank Japan PMI for May came in at 51.0
  • Market impact: investors may react moderately positively, especially in sectors focused on domestic demand and services

Fundamental analysis

Despite a slowdown in PMI growth compared to the previous month, activity remains above the 50 threshold, indicating continued economic recovery. Slower growth may raise expectations that the Bank of Japan will take additional stimulus measures, which could support the equity market.

However, the lack of growth acceleration may dampen investor optimism. If the slowdown continues, it could trigger a correction in shares of companies sensitive to domestic consumer demand and economic activity.

JP 225 technical analysis

The JP 225 index is rebounding from the 36,590.0 support level, heading towards resistance at 38,765.0. A breakout above this level will confirm the continuation of the medium-term uptrend. Currently, there are no signs of a trend reversal.

The following scenarios are considered for the JP 225 price forecast:

  • Pessimistic JP 225 forecast: a breakout below the 36,590.0 support level could push the index down to 33,820.0
  • Optimistic JP 225 forecast: a breakout above the 38,765.0 resistance level could drive the index to 39,625.0
JP 225 technical analysis

European index forecast: DE 40

  • Recent data: Germany’s manufacturing PMI for May was 48.3
  • Market impact: this is a negative factor for the stock market, particularly for engineering, automotive, and export companies

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s manufacturing PMI for May 2025 came in at 48.3, below the forecast of 48.8 and the previous reading of 48.4. This increases investor concerns as the index has long remained below the critical 50 level that separates expansion from contraction in business activity.

The updated PMI data confirms a slowdown in Germany’s manufacturing sector. Investors should exercise caution as pressure on the German equity market may continue, especially in traditional sectors like heavy industry, exporters, and automotive.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index has formed key levels, with resistance at 24,305.0 and support around 23,270.0. The current market dynamics indicate a stable uptrend, increasing the likelihood of new all-time highs.

The following scenarios are considered for the DE 40 price forecast:

  • Pessimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout below the 23,270.0 support level could send the index down to 22,245.0
  • Optimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout above the 24,305.0 resistance level could propel the index to 24,855.0
DE 40 technical analysis

Summary

The US 30 broke above the resistance level and reversed the emerging downtrend. Japan’s JP 225 is advancing towards its current resistance level. The US 500 and US Tech indices continue to trade in an uptrend, with Germany’s DE 40 aiming for another all-time high. Investor focus will turn to upcoming US labour market data, which will serve as the main economic indicator following the recent GDP report. In case of mixed results, the interpretation by the Federal Reserve will regain importance.