News

EURGBP: ⬇️ Sell – EURGBP broke multi-month support level 0.8610 – Likely to fall to support level 0.8550 EURGBP currency pair recently broke below the strong multi-month support level 0.8610 (which has been steadily reversing the price from the start.

The US Tech index continues to correct, but the trend remains upward. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US GDP grew by 2.1% in Q1 2026
• Market impact: the current data have a negative implication for the technology sector

US Tech fundamental analysis

According to the release, US GDP for Q1 2026 was revised upwards to 2.1% annualised, compared with expectations of 1.6% and the previous reading of 0.5%. At first glance, this represents a positive signal for the stock market: the US economy is growing faster than expected, the risk of a sharp slowdown is decreasing, and corporate earnings are receiving a more stable macroeconomic foundation. However, the market reaction may not be unequivocally positive, as strong GDP simultaneously reduces the likelihood of rapid Fed policy easing. For equities, especially the technology sector, this creates an important balance between expectations of higher earnings and the risk of persistently elevated interest rates.

For the US Tech index, the news may be moderately positive overall, although with clear limitations. The stronger-than-expected GDP reading confirms that the US economy remains resilient, meaning demand for cloud services, software, semiconductors, data centre equipment, and artificial intelligence-related solutions may remain high. This is especially important for the largest technology companies, whose valuations depend heavily on expectations of future revenue growth.

US Tech technical analysis

For the broader US equity market, the publication is more likely to reduce recession concerns. Higher GDP means the corporate sector is operating in stronger demand conditions than previously assumed. This may support the broader index market, especially if investors conclude that the economy is moving towards a soft landing rather than a sharp cooling.

The US Tech index continues to correct, but a sideways trend may form. The resistance level formed around 30,690.0 points. The nearest support stands at 28,415.0. The current uptrend may transform into a sideways movement. If growth continues to develop, the next target may be the 31,895.0-point area.

For the US Tech index price forecast, the following scenarios can be highlighted:

• Pessimistic US Tech forecast: if quotes break below the support level at 28,415.0, they may fall to 27,525.0
• Optimistic US Tech forecast: if quotes break above the resistance level at 30,690.0, they may rise to 31,895.0

Summary

Overall, the publication looks rather positive for US Tech and the US equity market, but it does not represent an unconditional signal for strong growth. The main positive factor is that the US economy proved stronger than expected. The main risk is that strong GDP may delay expectations of rate cuts, while weak consumer spending shows that domestic demand is not as strong as the headline figure suggests. Therefore, the baseline scenario is moderate support for equities, especially technology and investment-oriented companies, but with increased market sensitivity to further inflation and employment data, as well as Fed comments. The nearest upside target may be 31,895.0.

Open Account

The US 30 index is trading in an uptrend and has completed its correction, suggesting a new all-time high. Today’s US 30 forecast is positive.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: the US Federal Reserve kept its interest rate at 3.75%
• Market impact: the data has a negative effect on the equity market

US 30 fundamental analysis

For the US 30 index, this release appears rather neutral to moderately negative in the short term. The very fact that the rate was left at 3.50–3.75% is not in itself a shock for the market if investors had already priced in such a decision. However, the more important signal is not the current decision, but the change in the Federal Reserve’s rhetoric. If nine out of 18 officials allow for at least one rate hike this year, this means that the regulator is not yet ready to move to a softer monetary policy.

For the US 30 index, which includes major industrial, financial, consumer, and technology companies, this creates pressure through a higher cost of capital and more cautious expectations for corporate earnings. Investors who had previously expected the Federal Reserve to move more quickly towards rate cuts may begin to reduce their risk appetite. This is especially important since the Fed has officially abandoned the practice of forward guidance, meaning previously signalled indications regarding future decisions. For the market, this means more uncertainty.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index entered an uptrend and completed its correction. The nearest support level formed at 49,890.0, with the resistance level at 52,300.0. The price now continues to rise. If the current trend persists, the nearest upside target could be 53,240.0.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 49,890.0 support level could send the index down to 49,270.0
• Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 52,300.0 resistance level could drive the index up to 53,240.0

Summary

Overall, for the US stock market, this news means that the Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious and fairly hawkish stance. This does not necessarily create conditions for a deep market decline, as the US economy is still showing signs of resilience. However, the news limits the room for rapid index growth, especially if investors had previously expected a softer policy. Companies with strong cash flows, stable earnings, and low debt burdens may look more resilient, while overvalued stocks and sectors sensitive to borrowing costs may come under pressure. The nearest upside target could be 52,775.0.

Open Account

The DE 40 stock index remains in a global uptrend, but is trading locally within a channel. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: Germany’s PPI rose by 0.3% in May
• Market impact: the data creates a positive backdrop for the German stock market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

Germany’s actual PPI reading came in softer than expected: monthly growth was 0.3%, below the forecast of 0.7% and the previous reading of 1.2%. For the DE 40 index, this is a moderately positive signal, as the market receives confirmation that producer inflation has started to slow after a sharp increase. Weaker-than-expected producer price growth reduces pressure on German companies’ margins and partially lowers the risk of tighter monetary policy in the eurozone.

For the DE 40, the publication could support demand for shares of companies that are highly sensitive to interest rates and production costs. If investors conclude that inflationary pressures have peaked, this may improve share valuations, especially in industry, technology, real estate, and certain consumer segments. As an index of the 40 largest and most liquid German companies, the DE 40 primarily reflects the country’s large corporate sector, so the reaction will depend not only on the PPI itself but also on expectations for the ECB.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index has formed the nearest resistance level at 25,455.0, while a key support level is currently located at 23,810.0. The index continues to trade sideways, while a broader uptrend remains intact. If buying activity recovers, quotes may move into a new growth phase, with the nearest upside target at 25,940.0.

The DE 40 price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 23,810.0 support level could push the index down to 23,380.0
• Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 25,455.0 resistance level could drive the index up to 25,940.0

Summary

Overall, this release appears moderately positive for the DE 40 index, but not strong enough to sustain the index’s independent growth. It reduces concerns about accelerating producer inflation, but does not change the fact that annual price pressure in Germany remains noticeable. The most favourable reaction is likely in technology companies, real estate, industry, and consumer stocks, while chemicals, automotive, energy, and banking could see a more subdued or mixed reaction. The nearest upside target remains 25,940.0.

Open Account

The JP 225 stock index updated its all-time high after a correction. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: Japan’s policy rate stood at 1.00%
• Market impact: the effect on the Japanese equity market is mixed

JP 225 fundamental analysis

The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise the rate from 0.75% to 1.00% can generally be assessed as a moderately negative, but not shock-driven, factor for the JP 225 index. The increase itself matched the market forecast, so a sharp repricing of Japanese equities may not occur solely because of the decision. However, the level of the rate itself matters: this is the highest level since the mid-1990s, confirming Japan’s transition towards tighter monetary policy after a prolonged period of extremely low rates. The Bank of Japan explains the decision by the need to control inflation risks, while also indicating that financial conditions remain sufficiently favourable for the economy.

For the JP 225 index, the impact will be mixed. On the one hand, the rate increase raises borrowing costs for companies, reduces the appeal of equities with high valuations, and may intensify pressure on domestic demand. This is especially important for companies that depend on lending, capital expenditure, and consumer activity.

JP 225 technical analysis

The JP 225 index updated its all-time high and formed a new uptrend, with new support forming at 68,945.0. Resistance at 69,855.0 was broken. The current trend may become long-term. The 72,630.0 level is considered the next potential upside target.

For the JP 225 index price forecast, the following scenarios can be highlighted:

• Pessimistic JP 225 forecast: if quotes break below the support level at 68,945, they may fall to 65,860.0
• Optimistic JP 225 forecast: if quotes consolidate above the broken resistance level at 69,855.0, they may rise to 72,630.0

Summary

Overall, the publication increases the likelihood of investors adopting a more cautious approach towards the Japanese equity market. In the near term, the key factors will be the dynamics of the yen, Japanese government bond yields, Bank of Japan comments on further rate increases, and the corporate sector’s response to the rising cost of capital. If the regulator signals a gradual approach, the JP 225 index may maintain resilience. If the market starts pricing in a faster rate-hike cycle, pressure on equities, especially exporters and growth companies, may intensify. The next downside target for the JP 225 is the 60,950.0 level.

Open Account