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Commodities Weekly: Weather, war and debt broaden the commodity rally

Posted on: Aug 22 2026

Key Points:

  • The rally continues to broaden: The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index (BCOMTR) gained around 3% this week, lifting its year-to-date return to 30%, with all major sectors except industrial metals contributing. 
  • Scarcity is taking multiple forms: Geopolitical disruption, constrained energy flows, tightening agricultural supply and increasingly volatile weather are combining with concerns about fiscal sustainability and currency debasement. 
  • Agriculture joins the advance: Soft commodities led this week's gains as El Niño risks intensified, while grains were supported by Black Sea export disruptions, weather concerns and rising input costs. 
  • Fiscal concerns strengthen the hard-asset case, but risks remain: The fleeting response to expanded US Treasury bond buybacks highlights investor unease about debt and inflation, although higher real yields, dollar strength, demand destruction and an easing of supply constraints could still challenge the rally.

Commodities rally as scarcity takes multiple forms

Weather, war, fiscal debt concerns and a softer dollar have combined to support another week of broad-based commodity gains, strengthening the impression that the rally is no longer being driven by a handful of isolated supply stories. The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index rose around 3.3% this week, lifting its year-to-date return above 30%, while the 12-month gain has reached around 44%. All major sectors except industrial metals traded higher, while at the individual commodity level, platinum, silver, crude oil, diesel and EU gas led the gains.

Earlier commodity rallies were often dominated by one sector, most recently precious metals followed by energy, but the current advance increasingly reflects several independent drivers occurring at the same time. Physical supply constraints, geopolitical fragmentation, weather volatility and concerns about fiscal sustainability are supporting different parts of the commodity complex for different reasons.

Another notable feature is the performance gap between commodity spot prices and total returns. The BCOM Spot Index reflects movements in underlying commodity prices trades up 23% year-to-date, while the BCOMTR also incorporates futures roll returns and the return earned on collateral has gained the mentioned 30.5%. In markets characterised by backwardation, where nearby futures trade above deferred contracts, investors can benefit from positive roll yield as positions are rolled forward.

This helps explain why total commodity returns have been particularly strong. It also underlines an important characteristic of the current environment: tight physical conditions are not only lifting prices but, in several markets, creating curve structures that can enhance returns for futures-based investors or ETFs that track the performance of these futures.

Broad gains seen across most major commodities this past week - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results

Agriculture joins the scarcity trade

Agriculture has become an increasingly important part of the rally, with soft commodities leading this week's gains while grains have also strengthened. Here, the combination of weather and war is beginning to challenge what had previously been a relatively comfortable global supply outlook.

The weather story centres increasingly on El Niño. The developing event is expected to be unusually strong, raising the risk of disruptive weather patterns across several major agricultural producing regions. Tropical crops are particularly exposed, with coffee production in Southeast Asia, cocoa in West Africa and sugar production across parts of Asia and Brazil all vulnerable to shifts in rainfall and temperature.

The impact is already visible in prices. Sugar has extended a powerful rebound amid concerns about production prospects in India and Thailand, while cocoa and coffee have also strengthened as traders reassess supply risks. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index rose in July to its highest level since January 2023, with cereal prices up 3.4% during the month and sugar rising 5.6%.

The concern extends beyond crop yields. Agriculture is highly energy intensive, and the Middle East conflict has raised costs for diesel, fertiliser, transportation and irrigation. The FAO has warned that the combination of war, expensive agricultural inputs and El Niño could produce another bout of global food inflation later this year.

Sugar and Corn - Source: Saxo Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results

Grains face a different but equally important source of uncertainty. Escalating attacks around the Black Sea are disrupting one of the world's most important agricultural export corridors for wheat and sunflower oil. Ukraine recently cut its 2026/27 grain export forecast by as much as 12% following Russian attacks on its seaports, while disruption has also affected Russian export infrastructure.

In addition, Chicago corn futures have risen to an 18-month high after an industry field tour across the US Midwest suggested the corn crop is smaller than previously expected, raising concerns that yield potential may be more limited than forecast. At the same time, the tit-for-tat attacks by Russia and Ukraine on ports and vessels may ultimately force major buyers to seek alternative suppliers, potentially boosting demand and prices in other exporting regions.

The risk is therefore increasingly two-sided: weather threatens production while geopolitical disruption threatens the ability to move available crops to consumers. With energy and fertiliser costs already elevated, the margin for absorbing additional supply shocks is becoming smaller.

Bond market unease adds another dimension

The week's other major development came outside the commodity markets but may ultimately prove equally important for the hard-asset story. The US Treasury surprised markets by announcing that it would at least double the size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated government bonds, increasing purchases of 10- to 30-year securities to at least USD 4 billion per operation. The announcement came after 30-year Treasury yields had climbed to 5.34%, their highest level since 2007.

Initially, the intervention worked. Long-dated bonds rallied sharply and the yield curve bull-flattened as 30-year yields fell. The dollar weakened and hard assets received another boost.

More interesting, however, was what happened next. The rally quickly faded, with 30-year yields returning towards 5.25% despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent subsequently stressing that the administration has a "big toolkit" available to address borrowing costs. The expanded purchases remain modest relative to a Treasury market of more than USD 32 trillion, while total US government debt has now crossed USD 40 trillion.

The Financial Times captured the sceptical market response with one investor describing the initiative as a "band-aid on a bullet hole". The underlying concern is that liquidity operations can address market functioning but do little by themselves to resolve persistent fiscal deficits, rising interest expenditure and the growing supply of government debt.

For commodities, this debate matters because it challenges one of the traditional mechanisms through which commodity rallies eventually extinguish themselves. Normally, higher commodity prices lift inflation, pushing interest rates and real yields higher, strengthening the currency and eventually slowing demand.

Gold has been supported by a weaker dollar but with limited help from elevated real yields - Source: Bloomberg & Saxo

The question is whether large government debt burdens make that adjustment increasingly uncomfortable. If policymakers attempt to contain long-term borrowing costs while inflation remains elevated, investors may increasingly seek protection in assets whose supply cannot easily be expanded.

This does not mean monetary or fiscal policy has entered a new regime, but the market reaction this week, especially the strong rally seen across the investment metals and cryptos, suggests investors are at least asking the question. The renewed weakness in the dollar, down 1% on the week but still within the range seen during the past year, has added another tailwind, given that most internationally traded commodities are priced in US dollars.

Different commodities, common denominator

Energy remains an obvious source of physical stress as the conflict with Iran continues to disrupt Middle Eastern flows and keep refined-product markets exceptionally tight. Precious metals, meanwhile, continue to attract demand amid fiscal concerns and dollar weakness. Both themes have been covered extensively in our recent updates: When bond markets need support, hard assets start to look harder, Calm crude, tightening diesel: the real oil market stress is downstream, Copper versus gold: what an old macro signal is telling us now, and Gold holds firm as rate hike risks fade despite elevated bond yields.

What is more notable this week is how those forces are spreading across the broader commodity complex. Agriculture is responding to weather, war and higher input costs. Precious metals are responding increasingly to fiscal and currency concerns. Energy remains supported by geopolitical disruption and constrained product availability, while industrial metals continue to face longer-term supply challenges despite some near-term relief.

Gold has broken key technical resistance levels - Source: Saxo

Copper provides a useful reminder that the story is not universally bullish. London Metal Exchange inventories are heading for their largest weekly increase since 2020 as traders deliver metal against elevated prices following months of tightness. The response demonstrates how higher prices can attract supply and eventually ease scarcity. Prices nevertheless rallied once again ahead of the weekend after China, the world's top consumer of the metal, introduced a new dose of fiscal support for the economy during one of its weakest periods in years driven by sluggish domestic demand and private spending. Measures that may support demand for commodities, including copper.

Higher prices can destroy demand, encourage substitution and accelerate new supply. A meaningful de-escalation in the Middle East or Black Sea could remove geopolitical risk premiums from energy and grains. El Niño-related concerns may ultimately prove less damaging than currently feared, while a credible US fiscal consolidation programme could reduce long-term yields, stabilise the dollar and weaken demand for hard assets.

Equally, a sharp global economic slowdown would challenge industrial commodities and energy, while persistent inflation could force central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. Higher real yields and renewed dollar strength would be particularly important headwinds for precious metals and potentially the wider commodity complex.

For now, however, the defining feature remains breadth. The commodity rally is increasingly being supported by several independent forms of scarcity occurring simultaneously: constrained physical supply, geopolitical disruption, weather uncertainty and growing concern about the purchasing power of financial assets.

That does not guarantee prices will continue higher at the recent pace, and after a 30% year-to-date total return, the risk of corrections and profit-taking has clearly increased. But compared with earlier in the year, when performance depended heavily on a few individual markets, the current rally has developed a much broader foundation.

In a world where weather, war and debt are increasingly challenging assumptions about abundant supply and stable purchasing power, it is our opinion that commodities are once again demonstrating their distinct role within diversified portfolios, and we maintain our long-held bullish view on the sector, with some of the risks to this view mentioned above.  This reflects a market perspective, not a recommendation. Consider independent advice before making any investment decisions.

Related articles/content             
20 Aug 2026: When bond markets need support hard assets start to look harder 18 Aug 2026: Copper versus gold what an old macro signal is telling us now 17 Aug 2026: Gold holds firm as rate hike risks fade despite elevated bond yields 17 Aug 2026: COT on forex and commodities - Week to 11 August 2026 Educational resources: A short guide to trading crude oil The basics of trading wheat online A short guide to trading gold A short guide to trading copper A short guide to trading silver Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment? Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here
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Ole HansenHead of Commodity StrategySaxo Bank
Topics: Commodities Crude Oil Gasoline Energy (Sector) Iran USA Agriculture Gold Silver Copper Corn Wheat Sugar
Gold runs hot, equity vol cools - Options Brief - 10 August 2026

Posted on: Aug 11 2026

A jobs report that missed by more than a hundred thousand pushed stocks to records and pinned short-dated volatility to the floor. Gold went the other way entirely. Wednesday’s inflation print decides which one had it right.

Key findings

MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | VIX 14.90 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: NORMAL (132.57) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 16.95

  • A jobs miss produced records, not a scare. July payrolls fell 23,000 against roughly +83,000 expected, and the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.64, up 0.62%. Short-dated equity volatility went the other way, with VIX1D down 9.5% to 11.36.
  • The week’s real volatility sat in metals. Gold posted its best week since January, +7.3%, and gold volatility rose while equity volatility fell, with GVZ up 3.14% to 25.64.
  • Wednesday’s inflation print is not being bid. SPXW options price 91 points (1.17%) into Friday’s expiry, against the 92 points that flat-volatility decay alone would have left.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

The July employment report landed on Friday well below consensus, with the prior two months revised down a combined 103,000, and markets read a weakening labour market as removing the near-term case for a Federal Reserve rate increase. Odds of a September hike fell below 50%. More detail in Saxo’s Market Quick Take, 10 August 2026.

Market snapshot

  • US (Friday 7 August close): S&P 500 7,757.64 (+0.62%, a record), Nasdaq 100 29,722.30 (+1.19%), Dow Jones 54,042.39 (+0.28%), small caps +1.11%. High-beta led: disruptive-growth funds +4.89%, software +3.29%, semiconductors +1.96%. Atlassian rose 35.3% on guidance, Trade Desk fell 21.9%.
  • Europe: Stoxx 600 660.26 (+0.31%) at a record and a fourth straight weekly gain, DAX 26,319.45 (+0.69%), CAC 40 +0.17%, FTSE 100 -0.29%. Kingspan gained 17.8% on a raised profit forecast.
  • Asia (Monday session, in progress): Nikkei +2.0%, Kospi 6,302.24 (+0.69%), Hang Seng 25,853.69 (+0.72%), while the CSI 300 fell 0.52% after July Chinese consumer inflation slowed to +0.5% year on year.
  • Commodities and rates: Brent $84.43 (+1.05%), WTI $78.77 (+0.75%), gold futures $4,387.70 after last week’s 7.3% advance, silver +0.54%, gold miners +7.11% and junior miners +7.51% on Friday. US 10-year 4.654%, 2-year 4.212%, 30-year 5.204%.
  • Volatility detail: VIX 14.90 (-1.65%), VIX1D 11.36 (-9.48%), VIX9D 11.96 (-5.53%), front-month VIX futures 16.95 at a 2.05-point premium to spot, second month 18.55, SKEW 132.57, three-month implied correlation 10.48 (+11.37%), dispersion 36.74 (-5.06%).
  • Market regime: Low-volatility bull, VIX 14.90, 20-day realised volatility 14.0% and stable, S&P 500 3.51% above its 50-day moving average.

Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 10 August 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 7 August, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.

  • Single-name flow leaned to calls on premium without leaning to direction. Mega-cap technology took 60.5% of confirmed-opening premium in calls, yet the densest single line was an October put block in the largest chip name, crossed at mid, so the side is unreadable. Semiconductors carried a clear credit tone, with the session’s biggest line sold rather than bought and put selling running alongside it. Crypto-linked equities were the exception, where long-dated deep in-the-money call structures took $529.6m of $609.5m in opening premium.
  • Sector and ETF flow was two-sided at the index level and one-sided in metals and duration. Broad index premium of $2.18bn split 58.4% to calls, but long-dated index puts and long-dated index calls were both bought at the offer while near-dated upside was sold. Metals gave the cleanest directional read of the day, with a November gold position rolled to higher call strikes and near-dated miner upside bought. Rates ETF flow leaned to higher bond prices, calls taking $14.7m of $18.7m. Defensives, biotech, energy and financials produced no readable stance.

Volatility surface – 10 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

  • VIX 14.90 (-1.65%)
  • VIX1D 11.36 (-9.48%)
  • VIX9D 11.96 (-5.53%)
  • VIX3M 18.72 · VIX6M 21.02 · VIX1Y 22.66

VIX futures

  • Front-month 16.95, a 2.05-point premium to spot, narrower than Friday’s 2.15
  • Second-month 18.55, front-to-second ratio 0.915, contango

Skew and correlation

  • CBOE SKEW 132.57, down from 134.73
  • COR3M 10.48 (+11.37%)
  • DSPX 36.74 (-5.06%)

Other vol measures

  • VVIX 90.42 · MOVE 72.03 (-5.37%)
  • VXN 22.82 (-4.72%), 1.53 times VIX
  • GVZ 25.64 (+3.14%)

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

What the market is pricing

  • A quiet session, then a manageable week. SPXW options price a 40-point move, about 0.52%, for today’s expiry and 91 points, about 1.17%, into Friday, both derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. In our view that pair may describe a market expecting Wednesday’s inflation print to be absorbed rather than to reset the trend.
  • Inflation risk is being priced down, not up. Friday’s edition quoted 103 points for this same 14 August expiry. Flat-volatility time decay alone would have left roughly 92 points as the window shortened from five sessions to four, and the market sits at 91. In our assessment the shortfall may suggest that taking payrolls risk out of the front end mattered more than putting a consumer price index print into it, which is an unusual configuration ahead of a major release.
  • The front end has very little cushion left. VIX1D at 11.36 sits at 0.76 times VIX spot, the cash curve runs in steep contango out to VIX3M at 18.72, and the front-month futures premium narrowed to 2.05 points from 2.15. In our view a surprise on Wednesday could therefore reprice from an unusually low base, so the absolute level of short-dated volatility may understate how far it is able to travel.
  • Breadth improved, and the index gave up its dispersion cushion. Three-month implied correlation rose 11.37% to 10.48 while dispersion fell 5.06% to 36.74, on a session where the equal-weighted S&P 500 gained 0.70% against the cap-weighted index’s 0.62%. In our assessment an advance of that shape may leave index volatility more exposed to a common macro shock and less able to lean on offsetting single-name moves.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Today’s catalysts

  • 08:00 CET Norway July consumer price index
  • Tuesday 06:30 CET Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, expected to hold
  • Wednesday 14:30 CET US July consumer price index, the week’s main event, with the core rate expected at its lowest annual reading since March 2021
  • Thursday US producer price index, plus results from Applied Materials, Adyen and Netease
  • Friday US retail sales and preliminary University of Michigan sentiment
  • Reporting today: Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile

The week’s volatility bid moved to metals

Equity volatility fell across the front end on Friday while gold volatility rose, which is the one relationship from last week that has not yet reverted. Gold gained 7.3% on the week, its strongest since January, and GVZ closed 3.14% higher at 25.64, more than 1.7 times VIX. The miners moved further than the metal, with the GDX gold-miner ETF up 7.11% and the GDXJ junior-miner ETF 7.51% on Friday alone. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges in the pricing overview.

In our view the combination of a softer dollar, lower front-end yields and continued official-sector buying may help explain why the options market is currently willing to pay more for gold optionality than for index optionality. Oil volatility remains the outright outlier at 3.75 times VIX, with the Strait of Hormuz still unresolved. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.

Conclusion

The market has taken payrolls risk out of the front end without putting inflation risk back in, which in our view may leave short-dated volatility priced for a benign Wednesday from an already low base. Meanwhile the options market is paying up for gold rather than for the index, on the session after a record close, and in our view that is the more useful signal of the two. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

The author holds no position in any instrument mentioned at the time of writing.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.
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Koen HoorelbekeInvestment and Options StrategistSaxo Bank
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Trump administration refunds $100bn of struck down tariffs

Posted on: Aug 06 2026

The scale of the refund underscores how significant the Supreme Court's February ruling has been for importers, with more than half of the $166 billion collected under the struck down tariffs now returned. For companies that paid these duties, particularly importers reliant on affected trading relationships, the cash refunds could provide a meaningful working capital boost in the near term. The broader trade policy backdrop remains unsettled, however, given Trump's response of layering in new tariffs under alternative legal authorities, including Section 301 measures and fresh IEEPA-adjacent duties, which suggests importers should not read this as a retreat from tariff policy generally. Political pushback over the refunds going to corporate importers rather than consumers adds a domestic political dimension that could keep tariff policy in the headlines heading into further legal and legislative scrutiny.

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Washington has refunded roughly $100 billion in unlawful tariffs, but Trump has already moved to replace them with new duties under different legal authority.

Summary:

  • A court filing shows the Trump administration has refunded approximately $100 billion in tariffs, including duties and interest, that were struck down by the Supreme Court
  • The refunds were completed as of the end of July and represent more than half of the $166 billion originally collected under the invalidated tariffs
  • The Supreme Court ruled on February 20 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorise the president to unilaterally impose tariffs on imports
  • Critics, including Democratic Congressman Greg Casar, say the refunds have gone to corporate importers rather than reaching households
  • Trump responded to the ruling by calling Supreme Court justices "disloyal" and imposing new temporary 10% tariffs under different legal authority
  • He also issued a further round of global tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, aimed at countering unfair trade practices by other nations

The Trump administration has refunded approximately $100 billion in tariffs that were collected before the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the duties, according to a court filing reported by Reuters.

The filing, submitted to the U.S. Court of International Trade by customs officials, stated that "refunds (duties plus interest) of approximately $100 billion have been completed using the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries Refund component, certified by the agency, and sent to the U.S. Department of Treasury for disbursement." The figure, current as of the end of July, was disclosed in a filing submitted Tuesday.

The refunded amount represents more than half of the $166 billion collected under tariffs the Supreme Court invalidated in a ruling handed down in February, according to Reuters. Tariffs have remained a central pillar of President Trump's trade and foreign policy agenda throughout his term, despite repeated legal challenges and criticism from economic analysts.

The refund process has drawn political criticism, with opponents arguing that the money has largely flowed to corporate importers rather than American households. Democratic Congressman Greg Casar said this week that the refunds should go directly back to consumers, arguing "every single cent of these refunds should go back to American consumers" rather than to the companies receiving them.

The underlying dispute traces back to the Supreme Court's February 20 ruling, in which the court found that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president unilateral authority to impose tariffs on imported goods from trading partners. The decision struck down the bulk of Trump's widest reaching tariff programme.

Rather than scaling back tariff policy following the ruling, Trump escalated his trade agenda in response. He publicly criticised the Supreme Court justices involved in the decision as "disloyal" and moved quickly to issue new temporary 10% tariffs under a different legal authority, one that, like the IEEPA framework struck down by the court, had not previously been used by any president to impose tariffs. He subsequently issued a further round of global tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a statute designed to address unfair or discriminatory trade practices by foreign governments.

The combination of the large scale refund and the administration's continued pursuit of alternative tariff authorities illustrates the extent to which trade policy remains an active and contested area, both legally and politically, even as billions of dollars move back to the importers who originally paid the invalidated duties.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Mega-cap rally, chip jitters - Options Brief - 4 August 2026

Posted on: Aug 05 2026

Mega-caps carried the S&P 500 to the edge of a record Monday as Iran stood down and oil slid. Options pricing already looks past today, toward Friday’s payrolls.

MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING (MIXED SIGNALS)  |  VIX 15.86  |  TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO  |  SKEW: ELEVATED (139.96)  |  FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 17.81

  • Record chase. The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,600.50 (+1.48%), within 0.1% of its 7,609.78 record close, powered by Microsoft (+4.9%), Meta (+6.0%), Alphabet (+4.9%) and Amazon (+4.6%).
  • Volatility compression. VIX1D collapsed 23% to 9.43 as Iran de-escalation removed the weekend’s tail risk. SPXW options now price a 30-point (0.39%) move for today’s expiry, widening to 79 points (1.04%) into Friday’s payrolls.
  • Unresolved cross-current. A fresh South Korean chip selloff (KOSPI -1.1%) is capping Tuesday’s follow-through, and SKEW holds elevated at 139.96 even as headline volatility eases – in our view, a sign the market isn’t fully at ease behind the rally.

Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 4 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

Iran standing down from a threatened strike, paired with a 4.7% slide in Brent crude, cleared the way for Monday’s rally that carried the S&P 500 to a near-record close. Tuesday opened more cautiously as South Korean chip volatility capped the follow-through. Full macro rundown in Saxo’s Market Quick Take – Wall Street nears a record as Asia’s chip jitters linger, 4 August 2026.

Market snapshot, Monday 3 August 2026 close

  • US (Monday 3 August close): S&P 500 +1.48% to 7,600.50 (0.1% off its record); Nasdaq 100 +1.78%; Dow +1.32% to a fresh record 53,178.41. Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon each gained between 4.6% and 6.0%; Apple was the lone laggard, down 0.5%.
  • Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.5% to 652.09, close behind its own record; DAX +1.5% to a fresh intraday record above 26,000; CAC 40 touched its first intraday record since February.
  • Asia: Diverging Tuesday – MSCI Asia Pacific -0.7% on renewed South Korean chip volatility; KOSPI -1.1%; Hang Seng -0.5%; ASX 200 +1.3%.
  • Commodities and rates: Brent crude bounced to just above $85/bbl Tuesday after Monday’s slide to $81.55; gold rangebound near $4,107; the US 10-year yield edged up to 4.69%.
  • Volatility complex: VIX 15.86 (-0.8%), VIX1D 9.43 (-23.3%), VIX9D 13.28 (+1.8%), SKEW 139.96 (elevated), COR3M 9.08 (-6.5%), DSPX 42.17 (+1.8%), front-month VIX futures 17.81 in contango to the second month at 19.05.
  • Market regime (rules based read): Transitioning (mixed signals), VIX 15.86, 20-day realised vol 12.2% (falling), S&P 500 +0.24% above its 50-day moving average.

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 4 August 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 3 August, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.

  • Single-name flow: Confirmed-opening call buying dominated the Magnificent Seven (73.6% of premium), concentrated in Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet upside out to January 2027, leaving dealers short calls above spot and tending to buy into strength as those strikes approach.
  • Sector and ETF flow: Index and SPY flow ran the other way, with layered put structures built across the August-to-November expiries even as the index rallied – a pattern that, in our assessment, reads as protection retained around the upside rather than a change in view.

Volatility surface – 4 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

  • VIX spot 15.86 (-0.8%)
  • VIX1D 9.43 (-23.3%) · VIX9D 13.28 (+1.8%)
  • VIX3M 18.93 (-0.5%) · VIX6M 21.20 (-0.7%) · VIX1Y 22.90 (-0.2%), a term structure that stays in contango out to the one-year point

VIX futures

  • Front-month VIX futures 17.81 (-0.8%), a premium to spot consistent with the contango shape
  • Second-month VIX futures 19.05 (-0.7%), front-to-second ratio at 0.935

Skew and correlation

  • CBOE SKEW 139.96 (-0.9%), elevated versus the 100–120 neutral zone
  • COR3M 9.08 (-6.5%)
  • DSPX 42.17 (+1.8%), the S&P 500 dispersion index. Equity put/call ratio 0.78, index put/call 0.89

Cross-asset volatility

  • OVX 57.20 (-9.3%), easing sharply alongside Monday’s reversal in crude
  • GVZ 23.65 (+1.5%) · VXSLV 46.20 (+1.5%) · MOVE 80.48 (-3.1%)
  • VXN 24.77 (-4.7%) · RVX 20.09 (-0.9%) · VXD 13.91 (+0.8%) · VVIX 90.81 (-0.9%)

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 4 August 2026.

What the market is pricing

  • In our assessment, the market may be pricing minimal near-term event risk. SPXW options imply just a 30-point (0.39%) move for today’s expiry after VIX1D collapsed 23% to 9.43 overnight, consistent with Monday’s Iran de-escalation removing the main overnight tail. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.
  • In our view, the term structure may be loading event risk toward the week’s end rather than today. The SPXW implied range widens to 79 points (1.04%) into Friday’s payrolls report, a figure derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
  • In our view, the market may still be willing to pay for tail protection despite the calm headline print. The VIX curve stays in contango out to VIX1Y at 22.90, and SKEW holds elevated at 139.96 even as spot volatility eases.
  • In our assessment, Monday’s options flow may be consistent with protection bought around retained upside rather than a bearish turn. SPY and SPXW puts were layered across the August-to-November window even as the index rallied to a near-record close. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Today’s catalysts

Data due today (times in CEST): US June trade balance and Canada’s June merchandise trade at 14:30, US June factory orders and JOLTS job openings at 16:00, and New Zealand’s Q2 employment and wage data overnight at 00:45. Earnings after Monday’s close from Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Marriott International set the after-hours tone; today brings SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, Merck, HSBC, Amgen, Arista Networks, McDonald’s, Booking Holdings, Spotify, Pfizer and BP.

Conclusion

In our assessment, the setup into Friday’s payrolls print may favour structures that respect a market pricing near-term calm while quietly building event premium into the week’s end, rather than a straight continuation bet on Monday’s mega-cap breadth. With SKEW still elevated and South Korean chip volatility an unresolved cross-current, options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.
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Koen HoorelbekeInvestment and Options StrategistSaxo Bank
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