US 500 forecast: the index is once again heading towards a new all-time high

The US 500 may enter a correction, but the medium-term uptrend remains intact. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the US core PCE came in at 2.8% year-on-year
• Market impact: these figures are generally positive for the stock market

US 500 fundamental analysis

The published core PCE figure came in at 2.8% year-on-year, below the forecast of 2.9% and the previous reading of 2.9%. For the market, this is an important signal, as the core PCE remains the Federal Reserve’s key inflation gauge. The decline shows that inflationary pressure continues to ease, reducing the need for the Fed to maintain a tight monetary stance and increasing the likelihood of a more dovish rate path in the coming months.

For the US 500, such data is a moderately positive factor. The market reaction is likely to tilt upwards, as expectations of further easing in inflation reduce uncertainty around the Fed’s decisions. However, the rise is unlikely to be sharp: the figure declined by only 0.1 percentage point, and inflation is already close to the range the Fed considers sustainable.

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index has formed a resistance level at 6,895.0 and a support level at 6,790.0. The uptrend is slowing as the index approaches a new all-time high, with a short-term correction likely. If the price fails to break below the support level, the uptrend will remain intact, with a potential upside target around 6,985.0.

The US 500 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 6,790.0 support level could send the index down to 6,710.0
• Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 6,895.0 resistance level could drive the index up to 6,985.0

Summary

The core PCE price index declined to 2.8%, below the forecast and the previous reading, indicating easing inflation and reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve. The US stock market receives a moderately positive signal: bond yields may fall, and interest in risk assets may increase. For the US 500 index, this creates conditions for further growth, although the reaction may be restrained. A short-term correction within the broader uptrend also cannot be ruled out. From a technical perspective, the US 500 could rise towards 6,950.0.

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