"Cosmic reward" for Palantir shareholders, apparently. USD pivotal here.

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Today’s Links

The future of the Fed isn’t about hawkish/dovish. It’s more about how the Fed and the Bessent-led Treasury will move to unleash private balance sheets to drive US economic growth rather than the public deficits. Here is the somewhat over-the-top optimistic take the link above was responding to.

Crypto: What is Strategy’s strategy when the old strategy isn’t working? Michael Saylor’s Strategy is in a bad place - the hype cycle worked so well, now the company risks a vicious cycle rather than a virtuous one without, well, a new strategy.

One of the key pillars for the USD bearish argument also a concern for US stocks? GaveKal is always bearish on the US dollar, but still worth having a listen to some of the reasoning on the risks to the US dollar and US market returns should the portfolio-rotation theme deepen from here.

Will the space race end in a full stop? China purportedly warming up plans for a “space carrier” for military superiority (see video/propaganda mockup on free YouTube link). How would the US Space Force respond? And will it be able to ever launch such a thing if Elon’s million satellites end our ability to get into space for a few generations as a solar storm could spark the Kessler syndrome?

Chart of the Day - the Bloomberg US Dollar Spot Index

The Bloomberg US dollar spot index is a nicer measure of the relative strength of the US dollar as it balanced between 50% trade weighting and 50% liquidity weighting, rebalanced annually, and includes more currencies than the USD Index. The technical situation has USD bears sitting in a nervous spot - first we had a breakdown to a multi-year low on high momentum that look promising for the bearish outlook, but about half of the move has been backed out, leaving the price back in the old range. This hasn’t completely removed the bearish case, but the bears need to show up in force here if the market is to re-emphasize the bearish potential. If they don’t and the price action backs up above 1200 in the coming days/weeks, the entire move will have been neutralized. In EURUSD terms, things are starting to look ugly for USD bears if the price action merely closes below about 1.1750 here.

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