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US Tech forecast: the index enters a downtrend

Posted on: Mar 21 2026

The US Tech index has broken below a support level, but the downward momentum is weak. The US Tech forecast for next week is negative.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: the US Federal Reserve’s policy rate remained at 3.75%
  • Market impact: the current data is negative for the technology sector

US Tech fundamental analysis

The data appears moderately negative for the US Tech index and is restraining for the broader US stock market. Formally, the Federal Reserve did not change rates, which was expected; but the underlying signal is more important for the market than the fact that the 3.50-3.75% range remains. The regulator explicitly pointed to elevated uncertainty, acknowledged that higher energy prices are increasing inflation risks, and emphasised that further decisions are not predetermined and will be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis. At the same time, the Fed’s median rate projection for the end of 2026 remained at 3.40%, meaning only very limited easing is expected rather than a quick shift to a more accommodative stance.

US Fed funds interest rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

For the US Tech, this is an unfavourable signal primarily because the technology sector is the most sensitive to the cost of capital and to changes in rate expectations. When the market realises that the period of relatively high rates may drag on and bond yields rise, the appeal of companies whose valuation is heavily based on future earnings declines. This is why the market reaction after the meeting was cautious.

US Tech technical analysis

For the US stock market overall, the signal is more cooling than critically negative. On the one hand, the US economy shows no signs of a sharp decline: consumer spending remains resilient, business investment continues to grow, and the labour market is not showing any dramatic deterioration. On the other hand, the market is facing several constraints at once, with inflation remaining elevated, oil prices up, and the Fed not promising a near-term rate cut.

US Tech technical analysis for 20 March 2026

The US Tech index is showing downward momentum. The nearest resistance level is located around 25,195.0, while the main support level lies at 24,330.0. Prices are currently testing support again. If pressure persists, the next downside target could be around 23,575.0.

The US Tech price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout below the 24,330.0 support level could send the index down to 23,575.0
  • Optimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout above the 25,195.0 resistance level could boost the index to 25,855.0

Summary

For the US Tech, this Fed decision is negative, as the Fed not only held rates steady, but also signalled it is not ready to pivot quickly towards a more accommodative policy amid inflation risks. Until inflation begins to decline significantly and the oil factor eases, the US market will most likely remain sensitive to every new macroeconomic signal. The next downside target could be 23,575.0.

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How to improve the yield on long-term IWDA holdings

Posted on: Mar 13 2026

Many investors hold IWDA as a long-term core position - but few realise it can also generate additional income. This article explains how IWDA mini-options allow investors to write covered calls on smaller ETF positions, including how the potential yield, risks, and trade-offs work in practice.

How to improve the yield on long-term IWDA holdings

The iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF (IWDA) is one of the most widely used building blocks in long‑term portfolios. Many investors buy the ETF regularly and hold it for years as a simple way to gain exposure to global equity markets.

For most of that time, the strategy has been straightforward: buy the ETF, hold it, and allow global equity markets to compound over time.

However, a recent development on Euronext Amsterdam introduces a new possibility for some investors. Mini‑options on IWDA now allow option strategies to be applied in much smaller increments than before. In practical terms, this means investors can potentially generate option premium from part of an existing IWDA position without needing a large allocation of ETF units.

For long‑term investors who are comfortable with options, this may offer an additional way to improve the yield of a portfolio holding. At the same time, it is important to understand the trade‑offs involved. The strategy discussed in this article is educational in nature and examples are illustrative only. Options involve risk and require careful consideration before use.

Why IWDA is often a core holding

IWDA is widely used by investors seeking diversified exposure to global developed equity markets through a single ETF. Source: © Saxo

The iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF tracks the MSCI World Index, which represents large and mid‑capitalisation companies across developed markets. The index includes companies from North America, Europe and Asia‑Pacific, providing broad diversification through a single instrument.

Because of this diversification, many investors treat IWDA as a long‑term portfolio foundation. Contributions are often made gradually through regular investing plans, and the ETF is typically held for many years.

In such portfolios, the objective is usually straightforward: participate in global economic growth over time. Investors may focus less on short‑term market fluctuations and more on long‑term compounding.

Yet even within long‑term portfolios, some investors eventually ask a practical question. If an ETF position is intended to be held for years, could it also generate additional income along the way?

Listed options provide one possible approach.

What has changed: mini‑options on IWDA

Options on ETFs are not new. Covered call strategies have been used for decades by investors seeking to generate income from existing holdings.

Traditionally, however, listed options represent 100 units of the underlying asset. This means that a standard option contract on IWDA corresponds to 100 ETF units.

For many investors, that contract size has been a practical barrier. Someone holding 30 or 40 ETF units, for example, simply could not use the strategy because they did not own enough units to cover the contract.

Mini‑options change that dynamic.

On Euronext Amsterdam, IWDA options are now also available with a smaller contract size. Each mini‑option represents 10 ETF units rather than the traditional 100.

The strategy itself has not changed. What has changed is the scale at which it can be applied.

This smaller contract size allows investors to manage exposure in much finer increments, which may make the strategy more practical for a wider range of portfolios.

A practical example of why size matters

Consider a long‑term investor who has gradually accumulated 40 units of IWDA through regular investments.

Under the traditional option structure, this investor would not have been able to sell a covered call because the minimum contract size was 100 units.

With mini‑options, the same investor could potentially sell a call option on 10 units, 20 units, 30 units, or the entire 40‑unit position. In other words, the strategy can be tested on a small portion of the holding rather than the entire allocation.

At the other end of the spectrum, larger investors may also benefit from the flexibility.

Imagine a portfolio holding 1,500 units of IWDA. Instead of covering the position in large blocks of 100 units, mini‑options allow the investor to adjust exposure more precisely. Strike prices can be staggered, expiries can be spread across different dates, and only part of the position can be covered at any given time.

For both smaller and larger investors, the change in contract size simply allows more flexibility in how the strategy is applied.

Understanding the covered call strategy

A covered call is one of the simplest options strategies, although it still requires an understanding of how options work.

In a covered call, an investor owns the underlying asset and sells a call option on that asset. The buyer of the option receives the right to purchase the asset at a predetermined price, known as the strike price, before the option expires.

In exchange for granting this right, the seller receives an option premium.

Because the investor already owns the ETF units, the position is described as "covered". If the option is exercised, the investor can deliver the ETF units they already hold.

The premium received from selling the option is the income component of the strategy.

An illustrative IWDA example

Mini‑options allow investors to sell calls on IWDA in increments of 10 ETF units rather than the traditional 100. Source: © SaxoTraderGo

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.

Assume the following simplified market conditions:

IWDA price: EUR 112.60 Call strike price: EUR 115 Expiry: roughly one month Option premium: EUR 1.35 per ETF unit

One mini‑option contract represents 10 ETF units.

Premium received: EUR 1.35 × 10 = EUR 13.50

Position value

Value of 10 IWDA units: EUR 112.60 × 10 = EUR 1,126

Option yield

Premium relative to the ETF position: EUR 13.50 / EUR 1,126 ≈ 1.2% for roughly one month (illustrative and can be more or less depending on market conditions)

This yield illustrates why some investors consider covered calls on long‑term holdings.

Maximum profit and maximum loss

A covered call generates income from the option premium but limits gains above the strike price. Source: © SaxoTraderGo

Maximum profit

Maximum profit occurs if IWDA finishes at or above the strike price (EUR 115) at expiry.

Profit components:

Capital gain: EUR 115 − EUR 112.60 = EUR 2.40 per unit Option premium: EUR 1.35 per unit

Total maximum profit per unit: EUR 2.40 + EUR 1.35 = EUR 3.75 per unit

For the 10‑unit position: EUR 3.75 × 10 = EUR 37.50 maximum profit

Relative to the EUR 1,126 position value, this equals roughly: 3.3% maximum return for the one‑month example.

Maximum loss

The downside risk remains largely the same as owning the ETF.

If IWDA were to fall to zero (a theoretical worst case, which is unlikely to happen with a world-etf), the loss would be the value of the ETF minus the premium received.

Loss per unit: EUR 112.60 − EUR 1.35 = EUR 111.25

For the 10‑unit position: EUR 111.25 × 10 = EUR 1,112.50 maximum loss.

In other words, the option premium provides only a small buffer against declines.

Possible outcomes at expiry

If IWDA remains below EUR 115 until expiry, the option may expire worthless. In that case, the investor keeps the premium and continues to hold the ETF units. Some investors then repeat the strategy by selling a new call option with a later expiry.

If IWDA rises above EUR 115, the option holder may exercise the option. This means the investor may be required to sell the covered ETF units at EUR 115. In that scenario, the investor keeps the premium but does not benefit from price gains above the strike price on the covered portion of the position.

If IWDA declines instead, the premium received provides a small buffer against losses. However, the investor still bears the downside risk of owning the ETF. This is an important point: selling covered calls generates income, but it does not protect against declines in the underlying asset.

The central trade‑off

The logic of the strategy ultimately revolves around a simple exchange.

The investor receives option premium today, but in return accepts that the covered ETF units could be sold at the strike price.

If the ETF rises strongly above that level, the investor gives up some potential upside. If the ETF declines, the premium only partially offsets the loss.

For this reason, some investors view covered calls as a way to enhance income from long‑term holdings rather than as a strategy designed to outperform rising markets.

Practical considerations before using the strategy

Options are complex financial instruments and require careful evaluation before use.

Investors considering covered calls should think about several practical factors, including the possibility of early assignment, the liquidity of the option market, bid–ask spreads, trading costs and the tax treatment of option premiums.

Perhaps most importantly, an investor should be comfortable with the idea of selling the ETF units at the chosen strike price if the option is exercised.

If selling the ETF at that price would be undesirable, the strategy may not be appropriate.

Final thoughts

Mini‑options on IWDA do not introduce a new strategy. Covered calls have been used for decades by investors seeking to generate income from existing holdings.

What has changed is the contract size.

By allowing the strategy to be applied in 10‑unit increments, mini‑options make covered calls accessible to a broader group of IWDA investors. For some, this may offer an additional way to manage the yield of a long‑term ETF position while maintaining exposure to global equity markets.

As always, understanding both the mechanics and the trade‑offs is essential before using options in a portfolio.

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Author is permitted to wait at least 24 hours from the time of the publication before they trade the instruments themselves. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options. This content will not be changed or subject to review after publication.
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US Tech forecast: the index fails to form a directional trend

Posted on: Mar 07 2026

The US Tech index tested the support level but failed to extend its decline. The US Tech forecast for next week is negative.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: preliminary US services PMI came in at 51.7 in February
  • Market impact: the data has a mixed impact on the technology sector

US Tech fundamental analysis

The US services PMI print at 51.7, below the forecast of 52.3 and the previous reading of 52.7, indicates that the US service sector is still expanding (above 50.0), but growth is slowing and came in weaker than expected. Since services make up a large share of the US economy, the market typically interprets this as a signal of more moderate demand in the coming months and potentially more restrained revenue growth for companies tied to domestic consumers and corporate spending.

US services PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/services-pmi

For the US Tech index, such a release frequently has a mixed, but often moderately favourable short-term effect, as the technology sector tends to react more than others to shifts in rate expectations and bond yields. When yields fall, the present value of future cash flows rises, supporting growth-stock valuations, especially large-cap tech names and businesses with resilient margins. At the same time, weaker service momentum can also imply that corporate clients may become more cautious with spending, which increases the risk of slower sales growth in segments tied to company budgets.

US Tech technical analysis

For the US equity market, the effect typically reflects two opposing components. On the one hand, weaker PMI data raises the probability of profit deceleration in cyclical sectors and can reduce overall risk appetite. On the other hand, cooling activity often eases concerns about an overheating economy and inflationary pressures, which can push government bond yields lower and lead to softer expectations for the interest rate path.

US Tech technical analysis for 6 March 2026

The US Tech index has started to decline. The nearest resistance level is around 25,860.0, while the key support level has formed near 24,455.0. Prices currently remain in a sideways range and are testing the support zone. If pressure persists, the next downside target could be 24,010.0.

The US Tech price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout below the 24,455.0 support level could send the index down to 24,010.0
  • Optimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout above the 25,860.0 resistance level could boost the index to 26,560.0

Summary

In practical terms, this data alone does not signal a reversal, since the index remains in expansion territory; however, it increases the likelihood that the market will pay closer attention to upcoming releases on employment, inflation, and consumer demand. Meanwhile, high-quality large-cap technology companies may look relatively better than the broader market due to the impact of interest rate expectations. The next downside target could be 24,010.0.

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Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

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