News

"Cosmic reward" for Palantir shareholders, apparently. USD pivotal here.

Posted on: Feb 04 2026

Palantir delivers again, but the valuation still a hurdle.

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

Today’s Links

The future of the Fed isn’t about hawkish/dovish. It’s more about how the Fed and the Bessent-led Treasury will move to unleash private balance sheets to drive US economic growth rather than the public deficits. Here is the somewhat over-the-top optimistic take the link above was responding to.

Crypto: What is Strategy’s strategy when the old strategy isn’t working? Michael Saylor’s Strategy is in a bad place - the hype cycle worked so well, now the company risks a vicious cycle rather than a virtuous one without, well, a new strategy.

One of the key pillars for the USD bearish argument also a concern for US stocks? GaveKal is always bearish on the US dollar, but still worth having a listen to some of the reasoning on the risks to the US dollar and US market returns should the portfolio-rotation theme deepen from here.

Will the space race end in a full stop? China purportedly warming up plans for a “space carrier” for military superiority (see video/propaganda mockup on free YouTube link). How would the US Space Force respond? And will it be able to ever launch such a thing if Elon’s million satellites end our ability to get into space for a few generations as a solar storm could spark the Kessler syndrome?

Chart of the Day - the Bloomberg US Dollar Spot Index

The Bloomberg US dollar spot index is a nicer measure of the relative strength of the US dollar as it balanced between 50% trade weighting and 50% liquidity weighting, rebalanced annually, and includes more currencies than the USD Index. The technical situation has USD bears sitting in a nervous spot - first we had a breakdown to a multi-year low on high momentum that look promising for the bearish outlook, but about half of the move has been backed out, leaving the price back in the old range. This hasn’t completely removed the bearish case, but the bears need to show up in force here if the market is to re-emphasize the bearish potential. If they don’t and the price action backs up above 1200 in the coming days/weeks, the entire move will have been neutralized. In EURUSD terms, things are starting to look ugly for USD bears if the price action merely closes below about 1.1750 here.

Source: Bloomberg

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Top 3 trade ideas for 30 January 2026

Posted on: Jan 31 2026

Trade ideas for USDCHF, GBPUSD, and XAUUSD are available today. The ideas expire on 31 January 2026 at midnight (GMT +3).

USDCHF trade idea

A local bottom is forming on the USDCHF chart, suggesting a higher upward move within a correction phase. The short-term outlook remains bearish, so selling on price growth with a tight stop-loss remains preferable, anticipating continued bearish momentum. The key resistance level is located at 0.7740. The USDCHF trade idea for today suggests placing a pending Sell Limit order.

For USDCHF, bearish expectations dominate at 57% versus 43%. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:5. Potential profit is 77 pips at the first take-profit level and 210 pips at the second, while possible losses are limited to 38 pips.

Trading plan

  • Entry point: 0.7740
  • Target 1: 0.7633
  • Target 2: 0.7530
  • Stop-Loss: 0.7778

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GBPUSD trade idea

On the GBPUSD chart, the correction is expected to be nearing completion. A Doji-style reversal candlestick pattern has formed, which positively affects market sentiment and indicates potential resumption of the uptrend. The preferred strategy is to buy on pullbacks. The key support level is located at 1.3735. The GBPUSD trade idea for today suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order.

Market sentiment for GBPUSD shows a bullish bias – 63% versus 37%. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3. Potential profit is 137 pips at the first take-profit level and 185 pips at the second, with possible losses capped at 48 pips.

Trading plan

  • Entry point: 1.3735
  • Target 1: 1.3872
  • Target 2: 1.3920
  • Stop-Loss: 1.3687

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XAUUSD trade idea

On the XAUUSD chart, prices reached a new all-time high of 5,602 USD. A Doji-style reversal candlestick has formed at the peak. The Asian session saw selling activity, with bearish pressure persisting. The key support level is located at 4,954 USD. However, despite the decline, pullbacks continue to attract buyers. The XAUUSD trade idea for today suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order.

Market sentiment for XAUUSD shows a slight bearish bias – 51% versus 49%. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:4. Potential profit is 58,400 pips at the first take-profit level and 67,600 pips at the second, with possible losses limited to 16,000 pips.

Trading plan

  • Entry point: 4,954.00
  • Target 1: 5,538.00
  • Target 2: 5,630.00
  • Stop-Loss: 4,794.00

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Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.

US 30 forecast: the index is trading sideways after the decline

Posted on: Jan 29 2026

The US 30 correction turned into a decline and then into a sideways trend. The US 30 forecast for today is negative.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

  • Recent data: US manufacturing PMI for December came in at 51.9
  • Market impact: the data is moderately positive for the stock market

US 30 fundamental analysis

The manufacturing PMI index shows whether business activity in the manufacturing sector is expanding or contracting. A reading above 50.0 indicates growth, while a reading below 50.0 signals contraction. In the latest release, the indicator came in at 51.9, in line with the forecast of 51.9 and above the previous value of 51.8, meaning manufacturing remains in a zone of moderate growth, with a slight improvement in dynamics but no surprise for the market. For the US equity market, such a result is generally perceived as confirmation of economic cycle stability: demand and production activity are not deteriorating, which supports expectations for corporate revenues and profits.

For the US 30 index, the impact is typically slightly more noticeable than for the broader market, because it has a higher share of large cyclical companies, including industrials and the financial sector, which are sensitive to economic conditions and interest rate levels. In this situation, the signal of manufacturing growth itself is moderately positive for the US 30, but due to the lack of surprise, the effect is likely to be limited and may quickly be offset by overall bond yield dynamics and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.

US manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index has entered a downward phase, with a key support level forming around 48,430.0 and a resistance level shifting to 49,625.0. The nearest downside target is located near 47,685.0.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 48,430.0 support level could push the index down to 47,685.0
  • Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 49,980.0 resistance level could boost the index up to 50,080.0
US 30 technical analysis for 28 January 2026

Summary

The latest manufacturing PMI confirms moderate expansion in US manufacturing and is generally neutral-to-positive for US stocks. For the US 30 index, this serves as a weak supporting factor, but without significant momentum, as the data came in line with market expectations. The broader trend for the index remains downward, with the nearest downside target at the 47,685.0 level.

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Editors’ picks

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair’s movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold’s recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.