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Analysing the chart on 22 July, we constructed a descending channel and assumed that natural gas prices would continue to form a bearish market structure of lower highs and lower lows. Since then, the market has declined by almost 10%.

As the XNG/USD chart shows today, natural gas prices

Introduction to EURUSD The EUR-USD, often called “Fiber,” represents the exchange rate between the Euro and the U.S. Dollar, two of the world’s most traded currencies. This pair reflects economic developments in both the Eurozone and the United States, making it a critical indicator of global economic health. Investors, traders, and analysts closely monitor EUR/USD […]

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Japan Preliminary June Industrial production come in improved from May, a welcome development.

+4% y/y

• prior -2.4%

+1.7% m/m

• expected -0.6%, prior -0.1%

Still to come from Japan today:

• Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, July 31, 2025 - BoJ interest rate decision, China PMIs
• PREVIEW - BOJ likely to hold steady, market too hawkish on October hike odds
• BOJ expected to hold rates steady, offers cautious optimism as trade headwinds ease

Re this:

• Active shooter in Manhattan, New York; police officer and civilian shot

From NYPD:

• Due to police activity, please avoid the vicinity of East 52 Street between Park Avenue and Lexington Avenue. Expect emergency vehicles & delays in the surrounding area.

Live feed here:

Unconfirmed photo. These things are easy to fake, so treat with care:

The DE 40 stock index is poised to resume upward movement. Today’s DE 40 forecast is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for June came in at 0.1%
• Market impact: the value is neutral for the German stock market and the DE 40 index

DE 40 fundamental analysis

Germany’s PPI for June 2025 showed a 0.1% increase, matching forecasts and improving from the previous month’s -0.2%. A moderate rise in producer prices indicates stability in the manufacturing sector and the absence of sharp price surges, which reduces risks for corporate profitability within the index. This supports investor confidence in sectors such as industrials, engineering, and chemicals, as their cost base is not significantly affected by inflationary shocks.

Overall, the PPI data confirms expectations of a stable economic backdrop without abrupt inflationary spikes, which supports a positive outlook for the German stock market in both the short and medium term. Investors may expect a continued moderate rise in shares of leading DE 40 companies, while maintaining a balance between risks and opportunities.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index broke above the previous resistance level with a strong upward impulse, confirming the strength of the medium-term uptrend. A new resistance level formed at 24,660.0, while support shifted to 23,695.0. This price action indicates a high likelihood of continued growth and a possible new all-time high.

The following scenarios are considered for the DE 40 price forecast:

• Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 23,695.0 support level could send the index down to 23,010.0
• Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 24,660.0 resistance level could drive the index up to 25,150.0

Summary

The slight increase in Germany’s PPI creates favourable conditions for medium-term growth in the DE 40 index. For the consumer and retail sectors, a moderate rise in PPI signals subdued producer-level inflation, which may help preserve household purchasing power and stable demand for goods. The DE 40 index continues its upward momentum, aiming for a new all-time high. The next upside target is 25,150.0, which would mark a new record.