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Should we take corrections with no obvious drivers more seriously?

Posted on: Nov 06 2025

So far the move hasn't been broad, but we're overdue a basic correction.

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Today’s Links

These new AI data centers are nuts. Meta was in such a scramble that it was building massive “GPU tents” and some are building their own power infrastructure with in one case a 2 GW natural gas turbine setup - basically the equivalent of two full-size nuclear power plants. Insane.

A WSJ op-ed suggests that we could soon transition to the post-chip era in semiconductors - shifting to wafer-based solutions (like unlisted Cerebras does, which allows a massive wafer-sized solution that has 14 x the transistors of Nvidia’s state of art Blackwell and 7,000 times the memory bandwidth - also somehow “stacking” 16 of these in a single “box”). There is that and the idea that we can move beyond etching of chips with ASML’s “most complex ever machine” and get beyond the “reticle limit” to entirely new laser-based tech driven by Lam Research founder David Lam’s new startup Multibeam. And then the kicker if all of this could be based in the US rather than Taiwan or elsewhere. Clearly, human ingenuity will get us to performance levels currently unimagined and at far better efficiency.

The Palantir CEO Alex Karp railing against the “expert class” and suggesting that retail speculators are the smart ones here. The full cycle will tell, but Alex Karp might do well to park the hubris.

recent Michael Every appearance in which he lays out his theories on Economic Statecraft and even what he calls “fartcraft” (bear with him, it is important stuff) to mobilize and leverage national assets for strategic aims. His framework is so critical for this new age of markets.

Brent Johnson of the “USD milkshake theory” was on Macrovoices last week, with special focus on how the US plans to use crypto stablecoins to help back the US dollar.

Table of the Day - AI stocks bruised yesterday

Our even-weighted basket of AI stocks was down nearly 5% yesterday. Interestingly, two of the three weakest names since our “this is a bubble” declaration on September 11 have been a couple of the very largest names in the index: Meta and Oracle, two of the biggest spenders on AI infrastructure - especially Oracle, which peaked above 345 on the very day of the earnings call in which it touted titanic levels of planned data center capacity on September 10 (the major trigger that prompted the creation of this basket) and closed yesterday at 248.17, almost entirely retreating to the stock price of the day before that announcement ( 241.51). Note that not a single of these AI stocks posted a gain yesterday, even as 229 of S&P 500 Index members did.

Source: Bloomberg and Excel

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This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance. The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
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Saxo Bank
Topics: Podcast Highlighted articles Forex
Halloween horrors: the 5 portfolio nightmares that haunt investors

Posted on: Nov 01 2025

From FOMO to fear itself, these are the monsters that quietly destroy long-term wealth.

Halloween is the season of ghosts, ghouls and things that rattle in the dark. But for investors, the real horrors don’t hide in graveyards or misty forests. They live in your portfolio, waiting for a moment of weakness to strike.

You won’t find them creeping through alleys. They hide in red charts, breaking-news alerts and that small voice whispering, “This time is different.”

If horror films teach us anything, it’s that the danger often comes from inside the house. In investing, it’s the same story. The scariest losses are usually the ones we cause ourselves.

So light a candle, steady your nerves and step inside the haunted mansion of behavioural finance. Here are the five portfolio monsters most likely to scare your long-term returns to death.

1. Panic selling – the fear monster

Few things spread faster than panic. When markets tumble, headlines shout “crisis”, screens flash crimson and every instinct screams to get out.

It feels like self-preservation. It feels clever. But panic selling is how investors turn temporary losses into permanent damage.

The historical numbers are pretty brutal. Miss only the ten best days in the market over twenty years and your total return can be cut in half. Those best days often arrive when fear still dominates the front page.

Panic does more than lose money. It breaks the routine that makes compounding work. Once you sell in fear, it becomes easier to do it again.

The antidote: Decide in advance how much loss you can live with and keep enough cash so you are never forced to sell. Write your crisis plan while you are calm, not while the market is screaming.

2. FOMO – the siren song of greed

The ghost of FOMO does not whisper. It sings. It tells you that everyone else is getting rich, that this is your chance, that you’ll regret staying on the sidelines.

AI, quantum, crypto, green energy, meme stocks – the costumes change, but the story stays the same. By the time something feels like a can’t-miss opportunity, it is usually already priced for perfection. When the excitement fades, the silence is painful.

FOMO tempts you to chase someone else’s profits. You end up buying what they are already selling.

The antidote: Automate your investments so you add money regularly through calm and chaos. If you want to follow a hot theme, keep it small and separate from your core portfolio. Buy when the crowd is bored, not when it is shouting.

3. Overconfidence – the Frankenstein portfolio

Every investor dreams of building a masterpiece, a hand-picked collection of winners that proves they see what others do not. Then one flash of lightning changes everything. A profit warning, a new regulation, a fresh competitor. Suddenly the creation turns on its maker.

Overconfidence is the most seductive illusion in finance. It feels empowering but blinds you to risk. The market does not reward certainty. Even great companies stumble when conditions shift.

A portfolio built purely on conviction is like a castle built on wet sand.

The antidote: Diversify by behaviour, not just by name. Ten technology shares do not make you diversified, even if they trade under different tickers. Spread risk across sectors, regions and business cycles. Your future self will be grateful for a touch of humility.

4. Market timing – the phantom trade

Every investor imagines it. Selling right before a crash and buying back just as the rebound begins. The fantasy of perfect timing is intoxicating and ruinous.

Even professionals with data and models rarely get both decisions right. Most people sell too late, wait too long and miss the recovery. What they lose is not only return but also confidence. The guessing game becomes exhausting.

Markets move on surprises. The future does not send invitations.

The antidote: Replace prediction with discipline. Set a long-term allocation that fits your tolerance for risk and rebalance it when it drifts. It is not glamorous, but it makes you sell high and buy low without even noticing.

5. No strategy – the haunted house portfolio

This is the quietest form of decay. No panic, no greed, just drift. A few trades here, a hunch there, a handful of forgotten funds still haunting the corner of your account.

Over time, it becomes unclear what your portfolio is meant to achieve. There is no benchmark, no goal, no direction. It looks busy but nothing connects. It is alive, yet full of ghosts.

The antidote: Write a single-page plan that states why you invest, how much risk you can take and when you will review. Automate your contributions and resist the urge to fiddle with the mix. Consistency compounds. Impulse does not.

Trick or treat for grown-ups

Markets have always been haunted by the same spirits: fear, greed, noise and stories that sound irresistible. But the monsters that cause the most damage are not out there. They live inside us.

The investors who endure are not the ones without fear. They are the ones who build systems that protect them from their own instincts.

So this Halloween, do not fear volatility. Fear inconsistency. Fear the reflex to act just because everyone else is acting. Fear the soft voice that whispers, “It’ll be fine this time.”

Happy Halloween. May your portfolio rest in peace.

 

 

 

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Jacob FalkencroneGlobal Head of Investment StrategySaxo Bank
Topics: Equities Highlighted articles En hurtig tanke
Foreign inflow into Japan stocks surge ¥1.3 tln as domestic investors stay cautious abroad

Posted on: Oct 30 2025

Japan weekly security flows (week ending October 24)

Japanese investors continued net sales of foreign assets last week, though the pace eased from the prior period.

  • Japan buying foreign bonds: ¥-351.4 billion (previous ¥-669.7 billion)

  • Japan buying foreign stocks: ¥-62.1 billion (previous ¥-288.1 billion)

  • Foreign buying Japan bonds: ¥-253.5 billion (previous ¥-0.7 billion)

  • Foreign buying Japan stocks: ¥ 1,344.2 billion (previous ¥ 752.6 billion)

Japan’s latest Ministry of Finance data for the week ending October 24 showed a mixed picture in cross-border portfolio flows, with Japanese investors continuing to sell foreign assets while foreign inflows into domestic equities accelerated sharply.

Japanese investors remained net sellers of foreign bonds at ¥351.4 billion, though outflows moderated from ¥669.7 billion the previous week. Sales of foreign equities also slowed to ¥62.1 billion from ¥288.1 billion.

Foreign investors, meanwhile, turned heavy buyers of Japanese equities, with net purchases surging to ¥1.34 trillion from ¥752.6 billion a week earlier — the largest weekly inflow in over a month. In contrast, foreign holdings of Japanese bonds fell by ¥253.5 billion, after a marginal ¥0.7 billion decline the week before.

The data highlight renewed global appetite for Japan’s equity market amid a weaker yen and improving earnings momentum, even as domestic investors maintain a defensive stance toward overseas exposure.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.